Regime Card← Returns by RegimeVisa (V) returns by market regime
How V has historically performed from each regime band. Base rates, not forecasts.
The market is NEUTRAL today (39.4 percentile, as of September 4, 2026). From here, V has historically returned a median +5.9% over 3 months, positive 74% of the time, across 57 independent windows.
Unlike the market, V's weakest band has been Risk-On, not Mildly-Off: a median +4.5% over 3 months, positive 70% of the time, against +5.5% across all regimes. Its Mildly-Off median was +5.3%. Like the market, V has historically bounced from Risk-Off: a median +8.8% over 3 months, positive 83% of the time (14 windows, thin). Regime has been a moderate input for V: 4.3 points separate Risk-On from Risk-Off, against 4.2 for SPY, with the stock's own trend doing most of the work.
3-month forward return by regime
Each band shows where 80% of V's outcomes landed, low to high, with a tick at the typical return. Red where returns were negative, green where positive, deeper with size; the line marks zero. Bands with under 10 independent windows are hidden. Historical base rates, not a forecast.
All horizons
| Regime | 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RISK-ON | +1.1%58% positive53 windows | +2.8%64% positive38 windows | +4.5%70% positive27 windows | +10.9%82% positive18 windows | +23.9%88% positive10 windows · thin |
| MILDLY ON | +1.8%64% positive89 windows | +3.4%68% positive53 windows | +4.6%70% positive40 windows | +9.8%74% positive24 windows | +20.8%82% positive14 windows · thin |
| NEUTRAL ● here | +2.1%66% positive137 windows | +3.9%69% positive80 windows | +5.9%74% positive57 windows | +11.7%76% positive33 windows | +21.1%83% positive17 windows |
| MILDLY OFF | +1.7%61% positive82 windows | +4.4%70% positive52 windows | +5.3%75% positive39 windows | +11.1%82% positive22 windows | +23.3%95% positive13 windows · thin |
| RISK-OFF | +4.5%76% positive26 windows | +5.8%80% positive18 windows | +8.8%83% positive14 windows · thin | +11.9%90% positive11 windows · thin | insufficient (8) |
| All regimes | +2.0%64% positive212 windows | +4.0%69% positive107 windows | +5.5%74% positive72 windows | +11.0%79% positive36 windows | +21.5%87% positive18 windows |
Median forward return, share of positive outcomes, and the count of independent (non-overlapping) windows. Fewer than 10 reads as insufficient; 10 to 14 is marked thin. V history from March 19, 2008, data through September 4, 2026. Historical base rates, not a forecast.
How to read this
Every trading day the market regime sits in one of five bands, from Risk-Off to Risk-On. This page asks one question about V: historically, when the market was in each band, what did V do next? These are descriptions of what has happened, not predictions of what will. A median is a typical past outcome, and any single instance can land far from it.
For an individual stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; the stock's own trend dominates. Treat this as context among many inputs, not a reason to act. Method and market-level base rates are on Returns by Regime; the bigger picture is in the Dead Zone.
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All 50 stocks · Check any other ticker on Returns by Regime.