Regime Card← Returns by RegimeGoldman Sachs (GS) returns by market regime
How GS has historically performed from each regime band. Base rates, not forecasts.
The market is NEUTRAL today (39.4 percentile, as of September 4, 2026). From here, GS has historically returned a median +3.4% over 3 months, positive 61% of the time, across 57 independent windows.
A median +0.7% over 3 months, positive 51% of the time: that is GS in Mildly-Off, its weakest band and the market's too, against +4.6% across all regimes. GS's Risk-Off returns have sat close to its all-regime average (+5.2% vs +4.6%), so no clear bounce and no clear penalty (14 windows, thin). Regime has mattered more for GS than for the market: 9.0 points separate Mildly-Off from Risk-On, against 4.2 for SPY. Its own trend still dominates any single window.
3-month forward return by regime
Each band shows where 80% of GS's outcomes landed, low to high, with a tick at the typical return. Red where returns were negative, green where positive, deeper with size; the line marks zero. Bands with under 10 independent windows are hidden. Historical base rates, not a forecast.
All horizons
| Regime | 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RISK-ON | +3.5%70% positive53 windows | +6.0%76% positive38 windows | +9.7%76% positive27 windows | +24.9%82% positive18 windows | +35.3%90% positive10 windows · thin |
| MILDLY ON | +2.4%64% positive89 windows | +4.8%67% positive53 windows | +7.3%71% positive40 windows | +12.9%71% positive24 windows | +12.9%77% positive14 windows · thin |
| NEUTRAL ● here | +0.8%55% positive137 windows | +2.6%62% positive80 windows | +3.4%61% positive57 windows | +5.6%63% positive33 windows | +9.8%64% positive17 windows |
| MILDLY OFF | −0.8%45% positive82 windows | −1.1%46% positive52 windows | +0.7%51% positive39 windows | −1.8%48% positive22 windows | +1.2%52% positive13 windows · thin |
| RISK-OFF | +2.5%56% positive26 windows | +3.8%61% positive18 windows | +5.2%67% positive14 windows · thin | +12.8%79% positive11 windows · thin | insufficient (8) |
| All regimes | +1.2%56% positive212 windows | +3.0%61% positive107 windows | +4.6%63% positive72 windows | +7.7%64% positive36 windows | +10.6%67% positive18 windows |
Median forward return, share of positive outcomes, and the count of independent (non-overlapping) windows. Fewer than 10 reads as insufficient; 10 to 14 is marked thin. GS history from January 3, 2006, data through September 4, 2026. Historical base rates, not a forecast.
How to read this
Every trading day the market regime sits in one of five bands, from Risk-Off to Risk-On. This page asks one question about GS: historically, when the market was in each band, what did GS do next? These are descriptions of what has happened, not predictions of what will. A median is a typical past outcome, and any single instance can land far from it.
For an individual stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; the stock's own trend dominates. Treat this as context among many inputs, not a reason to act. Method and market-level base rates are on Returns by Regime; the bigger picture is in the Dead Zone.
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All 50 stocks · Check any other ticker on Returns by Regime.