Travelers (TRV) returns by market regime
In past Mildly Off markets, TRV's typical 3-month return was +2.2%, rising 60% of the time, below its +3.8% across all markets.
TRV: typical return and usual range
Tick: typical return · Bar ends: usual range · Dashed line: 0% · Arrow: runs past the edge
Typical return +1.6%, usual range −5% to +8%.How often it rose: 61%
Typical return +1.3%, usual range −4% to +10%.How often it rose: 63%
Typical return +1.2%, usual range −5% to +7%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +0.9%, usual range −6% to +7%.How often it rose: 57%
Typical return +3.3%, usual range −5% to +15%.How often it rose: 71%
Typical return +4.3%, usual range −5% to +12%.How often it rose: 71%
Typical return +2.6%, usual range −7% to +13%.How often it rose: 62%
Typical return +2.2%, usual range −6% to +10%.How often it rose: 63%
Typical return +1.6%, usual range −8% to +11%.How often it rose: 57%
Typical return +5.3%, usual range −5% to +17%.How often it rose: 71%
Typical return +6.6%, usual range −7% to +19%.How often it rose: 76%
Typical return +4.6%, usual range −5% to +19%.How often it rose: 70%
Typical return +3.6%, usual range −6% to +14%.How often it rose: 69%
Typical return +2.2%, usual range −10% to +14%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +6.2%, usual range −7% to +21%, limited history.How often it rose: 74%
Typical return +10.0%, usual range +1% to +25%.How often it rose: 92%
Typical return +8.4%, usual range −4% to +27%.How often it rose: 84%
Typical return +8.0%, usual range −6% to +23%.How often it rose: 77%
Typical return +4.0%, usual range −9% to +17%.How often it rose: 62%
Typical return +10.8%, usual range −7% to +24%, limited history.How often it rose: 75%
Typical return +18.9%, usual range +6% to +41%, limited history.How often it rose: 97%
Typical return +17.5%, usual range +3% to +40%, limited history.How often it rose: 95%
Typical return +14.0%, usual range −1% to +34%.How often it rose: 89%
Typical return +12.1%, usual range −5% to +33%, limited history.How often it rose: 82%
Know when the regime changes
TRV's typical 3-month return in past Mildly Off markets was +2.2%. Get an email the day the regime changes, and today's reading right away.
TRV: 1 month to 1 year, by market regime
| Regime | 1 month | 2 months | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | +1.6%61%53 | +4.3%71%38 | +6.6%76%27 | +10.0%92%18 | +18.9%97%10, limited history |
| Mildly On | +1.3%63%90 | +2.6%62%53 | +4.6%70%41 | +8.4%84%24 | +17.5%95%14, limited history |
| Neutral | +1.2%60%138 | +2.2%63%81 | +3.6%69%57 | +8.0%77%33 | +14.0%89%17 |
| Mildly Off Today | +0.9%57%83 | +1.6%57%52 | +2.2%60%39 | +4.0%62%23 | +12.1%82%13, limited history |
| Risk-Off | +3.3%71%26 | +5.3%71%18 | +6.2%74%14, limited history | +10.8%75%11, limited history | too little history: 8 past 12-month periods |
| All regimesbaseline | +1.3%61%213 | +2.6%63%107 | +3.8%69%73 | +8.3%77%36 | +14.9%90%18 |
Figures in italics have limited history (10 to 14 past periods); a dash means too little history.
TRV: Financials stocks
| Stock | Risk-On | Mildly On | Neutral | Today Mildly Off | Risk-Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector ETF (XLF) Financials | +7.2% | +4.5% | +3.5% | +1.1% | +4.9%, limited history |
| MA Mastercard | +6.1% | +5.2% | +6.0% | +5.8% | +8.5%, limited history |
| XYZ Block | +12.1% | +9.3% | +7.2% | +5.5% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods |
| CINF Cincinnati Financial | +4.4% | +4.3% | +3.9% | +5.3% | +8.2%, limited history |
| V Visa | +4.6% | +4.7% | +5.9% | +5.3% | +8.8%, limited history |
| FISV Fiserv | +4.1% | +3.3% | +5.3% | +4.9% | +7.7%, limited history |
| MSCI MSCI | +5.1% | +5.8% | +6.7% | +4.6% | +12.0%, limited history |
| JKHY Jack Henry | +2.2% | +2.6% | +4.4% | +4.5% | +9.3%, limited history |
| ACGL Arch Capital Group | +6.4% | +4.9% | +3.6% | +4.3% | +6.0%, limited history |
| MCO Moody's | +6.1% | +4.2% | +7.6% | +4.2% | +10.3%, limited history |
| ARES Ares Management | +5.6% | +6.1% | +9.4% | +4.0% | +11.6%, limited history |
| SPGI S&P Global | +5.2% | +2.4% | +6.7% | +4.0% | +10.8%, limited history |
| AIZ Assurant | +8.6% | +5.9% | +3.5% | +3.9% | +4.9%, limited history |
| WRB W. R. Berkley | +6.7% | +3.5% | +3.5% | +3.9% | +8.3%, limited history |
| NDAQ Nasdaq | +3.4% | +2.8% | +5.5% | +3.7% | +8.8%, limited history |
| PGR Progressive | +6.5% | +4.8% | +4.7% | +3.4% | +4.8%, limited history |
| AON Aon | +2.9% | +2.0% | +4.3% | +3.2% | +5.4%, limited history |
| CPAY Corpay | +5.2% | +5.5% | +5.3% | +3.2% | +6.6%, limited history |
| AJG Arthur J. Gallagher | +8.0% | +4.3% | +4.5% | +2.8% | +6.0%, limited history |
| ALL Allstate | +8.0% | +5.3% | +3.8% | +2.8% | +5.9%, limited history |
| MRSH Marsh McLennan | +4.5% | +3.8% | +4.4% | +2.8% | +6.1%, limited history |
| APO Apollo Global Management | +3.6% | +8.2% | +8.2% | +2.7% | +14.1%, limited history |
| KKR KKR | +9.3% | +8.3% | +7.3% | +2.6% | +7.9%, limited history |
| EG Everest Group | +5.9% | +2.5% | +3.1% | +2.5% | +4.1%, limited history |
| FIS Fidelity National Information Services | +2.9% | +4.2% | +3.4% | +2.5% | +3.5%, limited history |
| AFL Aflac | +6.4% | +4.1% | +4.3% | +2.4% | +9.1%, limited history |
| CB Chubb | +4.9% | +4.6% | +4.4% | +2.4% | +6.1%, limited history |
| CME CME Group | +7.7% | +5.5% | +4.8% | +2.4% | −1.8%, limited history |
| RJF Raymond James | +8.2% | +5.4% | +5.2% | +2.4% | +9.8%, limited history |
| GPN Global Payments | +3.7% | +1.6% | +4.1% | +2.3% | +11.4%, limited history |
| TRV Travelers | +6.6% | +4.6% | +3.6% | +2.2% | +6.2%, limited history |
| CBOE Cboe Global Markets | +7.6% | +8.4% | +6.1% | +2.0% | +3.0%, limited history |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity | +5.6% | +4.8% | +3.4% | +2.0% | +6.5%, limited history |
| GL Globe Life | +8.6% | +4.4% | +4.6% | +2.0% | +7.0%, limited history |
| HIG The Hartford | +7.1% | +4.5% | +3.2% | +2.0% | +4.3%, limited history |
| AXP American Express | +9.4% | +9.8% | +4.7% | +1.8% | −0.5%, limited history |
| BRO Brown & Brown | +4.2% | +4.8% | +4.1% | +1.5% | +4.8%, limited history |
| ICE Intercontinental Exchange | +3.9% | +4.9% | +4.4% | +1.5% | +5.4%, limited history |
| SCHW Charles Schwab | +8.8% | +4.6% | +4.0% | +1.4% | +7.9%, limited history |
| PYPL PayPal | +7.3% | +6.0% | −0.8% | +1.3% | +12.5%, limited history |
| BNY BNY | +6.9% | +4.7% | +4.7% | +1.2% | +7.0%, limited history |
| BX Blackstone | +9.2% | +4.2% | +9.1% | +1.1% | +7.9%, limited history |
| AIG AIG | +2.1% | +2.3% | +2.8% | +1.0% | +1.7%, limited history |
| JPM JPMorgan Chase | +8.0% | +5.3% | +5.1% | +1.0% | +4.4%, limited history |
| MET MetLife | +8.0% | +3.6% | +1.8% | +1.0% | +4.8%, limited history |
| IBKR Interactive Brokers | +3.7% | +6.3% | +4.1% | +0.9% | +6.1%, limited history |
| HBAN Huntington Bancshares | +7.8% | +4.1% | +3.5% | +0.8% | +8.3%, limited history |
| FDS FactSet | +2.3% | +1.6% | +4.9% | +0.7% | +5.0%, limited history |
| GS Goldman Sachs | +9.5% | +7.1% | +3.4% | +0.7% | +5.2%, limited history |
| BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.6% | +5.2% | +2.7% | +0.6% | +0.5%, limited history |
| WTW Willis Towers Watson | +6.5% | +1.7% | +2.3% | +0.6% | +7.5%, limited history |
| BLK BlackRock | +7.2% | +4.5% | +4.4% | +0.5% | +11.7%, limited history |
| WFC Wells Fargo | +5.9% | +5.5% | +3.2% | +0.5% | +4.1%, limited history |
| USB U.S. Bancorp | +7.7% | +4.0% | +2.9% | +0.3% | +5.3%, limited history |
| KEY KeyCorp | +3.5% | +5.6% | +3.6% | +0.2% | +6.1%, limited history |
| PFG Principal Financial | +10.0% | +6.2% | +3.8% | +0.1% | +6.9%, limited history |
| AMP Ameriprise Financial | +12.6% | +8.1% | +6.8% | 0.0% | +8.3%, limited history |
| MS Morgan Stanley | +9.3% | +7.1% | +4.9% | 0.0% | +5.8%, limited history |
| RF Regions Financial | +8.8% | +5.4% | +2.8% | 0.0% | +7.2%, limited history |
| TROW T. Rowe Price | +4.7% | +4.0% | +3.1% | 0.0% | +7.0%, limited history |
| NTRS Northern Trust | +5.3% | +4.6% | +3.4% | −0.2% | +7.0%, limited history |
| CFG Citizens Financial | +12.0% | +9.0% | +2.6% | −0.3% | +8.1%, limited history |
| TFC Truist | +6.4% | +4.7% | +3.1% | −0.4% | +6.7%, limited history |
| PRU Prudential Financial | +8.2% | +5.5% | +2.7% | −0.5% | +5.5%, limited history |
| L Loews | +5.9% | +4.3% | +3.0% | −0.6% | +3.5%, limited history |
| PNC PNC Financial | +10.6% | +6.2% | +3.8% | −0.7% | +5.9%, limited history |
| COF Capital One | +8.9% | +5.6% | +3.3% | −1.0% | +1.5%, limited history |
| MTB M&T Bank | +6.1% | +4.8% | +3.3% | −1.1% | +4.5%, limited history |
| STT State Street | +7.6% | +4.5% | +4.2% | −1.2% | +7.2%, limited history |
| FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | +10.1% | +6.3% | +4.0% | −1.3% | +6.6%, limited history |
| BAC Bank of America | +10.0% | +6.6% | +3.8% | −1.4% | +2.3%, limited history |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | +9.0% | +10.6% | +2.4% | −1.5% | +5.5%, limited history |
| C Citigroup | +6.1% | +5.9% | +3.0% | −1.6% | +4.0%, limited history |
| BEN Franklin Resources | +6.8% | +1.3% | +1.9% | −2.7% | 0.0%, limited history |
| ALLY Ally Financial | +6.1% | +6.4% | +1.1% | −3.6% | −1.5%, limited history |
| NMR Nomura Holdings | +3.4% | −0.9% | −1.0% | −3.6% | −4.4%, limited history |
| IVZ Invesco | +10.2% | +4.4% | +2.0% | −5.4% | +7.1%, limited history |
| RIOT Riot Platforms | +6.7% | −0.3% | +3.2% | −23.4% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| MARA MARA Holdings | −12.1% | −6.2% | +6.3% | −24.0% | −10.9%, limited history |
| COIN Coinbase | too little history: 5 past 3-month periods | −3.5%, limited history | +11.6% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods | too little history: 4 past 3-month periods |
| HOOD Robinhood | too little history: 5 past 3-month periods | +12.3%, limited history | +9.2% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods | too little history: 4 past 3-month periods |
| SOFI SoFi | too little history: 7 past 3-month periods | −5.9%, limited history | +1.2% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods | too little history: 4 past 3-month periods |
Sector ETF: XLF's own typical return, the figure on its page.
TRV versus the market
TRV's typical 3-month return moves about as much as the S&P 500's from one regime to another (TRV +2.2% to +6.6%, S&P 500 +1.7% to +6.0%).
Today's reading: 17th percentile (0 most Risk-Off, 100 most Risk-On), as of Friday's close, Oct 16.
Like the market, TRV has done worst from Mildly Off. That is today's regime. TRV has historically shared the market's bounce from Risk-Off.
How to read this
Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what TRV did after past days in each market regime. They are not forecasts: any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from the last two decades may not hold in the years ahead.
The numbers. The typical return is the median: the middle outcome, with half of past periods better and half worse. The usual range holds 8 in 10 of them, from the 10th to the 90th percentile. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, shown as a dash. TRV history from January 3, 2006, data through October 16, 2026.
About the same. The sentence under the title sets TRV's typical return in today's regime against its typical return across all markets; figures within half a point, or within a tenth of the larger one, count as about the same. The section on TRV versus the market sets how far its typical return moves across regimes against the S&P 500's move, which says nothing about better or worse overall.
Single stocks. For one stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; its own trend dominates. Use it as context, not a reason to act. Why the mild-stress Dead Zone has been the weakest place to be.