Regime Card← Returns by RegimeBerkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) returns by market regime
How BRK-B has historically performed from each regime band. Base rates, not forecasts.
The market is NEUTRAL today (39.4 percentile, as of September 4, 2026). From here, BRK-B has historically returned a median +2.7% over 3 months, positive 68% of the time, across 57 independent windows.
Unlike the market, BRK-B's weakest band has been Risk-Off, not Mildly-Off: a median +0.5% over 3 months, positive 53% of the time, against +3.1% across all regimes (14 windows, thin). Its Mildly-Off median was +0.6%. BRK-B has not shared the market's Risk-Off bounce: a median +0.5% from Risk-Off, below its +3.1% all-regime average (14 windows, thin). Regime has been a moderate input for BRK-B: 6.3 points separate Risk-Off from Risk-On, against 4.2 for SPY, with the stock's own trend doing most of the work.
3-month forward return by regime
Each band shows where 80% of BRK-B's outcomes landed, low to high, with a tick at the typical return. Red where returns were negative, green where positive, deeper with size; the line marks zero. Bands with under 10 independent windows are hidden. Historical base rates, not a forecast.
All horizons
| Regime | 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RISK-ON | +1.7%68% positive53 windows | +4.2%76% positive38 windows | +6.8%77% positive27 windows | +13.9%84% positive18 windows | +22.7%93% positive10 windows · thin |
| MILDLY ON | +1.4%63% positive89 windows | +3.2%72% positive53 windows | +5.3%78% positive40 windows | +9.8%84% positive24 windows | +20.7%92% positive14 windows · thin |
| NEUTRAL ● here | +0.7%56% positive137 windows | +1.7%62% positive80 windows | +2.7%68% positive57 windows | +7.1%74% positive33 windows | +11.6%75% positive17 windows |
| MILDLY OFF | +0.4%53% positive82 windows | +0.6%53% positive52 windows | +0.6%53% positive39 windows | +4.4%65% positive22 windows | +5.9%70% positive13 windows · thin |
| RISK-OFF | +2.5%63% positive26 windows | +1.8%59% positive18 windows | +0.5%53% positive14 windows · thin | +7.5%68% positive11 windows · thin | insufficient (8) |
| All regimes | +1.1%59% positive212 windows | +2.0%64% positive107 windows | +3.1%67% positive72 windows | +7.4%75% positive36 windows | +13.9%78% positive18 windows |
Median forward return, share of positive outcomes, and the count of independent (non-overlapping) windows. Fewer than 10 reads as insufficient; 10 to 14 is marked thin. BRK-B history from January 3, 2006, data through September 4, 2026. Historical base rates, not a forecast.
How to read this
Every trading day the market regime sits in one of five bands, from Risk-Off to Risk-On. This page asks one question about BRK-B: historically, when the market was in each band, what did BRK-B do next? These are descriptions of what has happened, not predictions of what will. A median is a typical past outcome, and any single instance can land far from it.
For an individual stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; the stock's own trend dominates. Treat this as context among many inputs, not a reason to act. Method and market-level base rates are on Returns by Regime; the bigger picture is in the Dead Zone.
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