Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) returns by market regime
In past Mildly Off markets, BRK-B's typical 3-month return was +0.6%, rising 53% of the time, below its +3.1% across all markets.
BRK-B: typical return and usual range
Tick: typical return · Bar ends: usual range · Dashed line: 0% · Arrow: runs past the edge
Typical return +1.7%, usual range −3% to +9%.How often it rose: 68%
Typical return +1.4%, usual range −4% to +8%.How often it rose: 63%
Typical return +0.7%, usual range −4% to +6%.How often it rose: 56%
Typical return +0.5%, usual range −7% to +6%.How often it rose: 53%
Typical return +2.5%, usual range −10% to +9%.How often it rose: 63%
Typical return +4.2%, usual range −2% to +14%.How often it rose: 76%
Typical return +3.2%, usual range −5% to +12%.How often it rose: 72%
Typical return +1.6%, usual range −5% to +9%.How often it rose: 62%
Typical return +0.6%, usual range −9% to +9%.How often it rose: 53%
Typical return +1.8%, usual range −13% to +11%.How often it rose: 59%
Typical return +6.6%, usual range −3% to +17%.How often it rose: 77%
Typical return +5.2%, usual range −3% to +14%.How often it rose: 78%
Typical return +2.7%, usual range −4% to +12%.How often it rose: 68%
Typical return +0.6%, usual range −10% to +10%.How often it rose: 53%
Typical return +0.5%, usual range −13% to +13%, limited history.How often it rose: 53%
Typical return +13.8%, usual range −2% to +25%.How often it rose: 84%
Typical return +9.8%, usual range −4% to +22%.How often it rose: 84%
Typical return +7.0%, usual range −7% to +17%.How often it rose: 74%
Typical return +4.4%, usual range −11% to +13%.How often it rose: 65%
Typical return +7.5%, usual range −15% to +16%, limited history.How often it rose: 68%
Typical return +22.5%, usual range +2% to +46%, limited history.How often it rose: 93%
Typical return +20.5%, usual range +1% to +33%, limited history.How often it rose: 92%
Typical return +11.5%, usual range −6% to +32%.How often it rose: 75%
Typical return +5.9%, usual range −9% to +28%, limited history.How often it rose: 70%
Know when the regime changes
BRK-B's typical 3-month return in past Mildly Off markets was +0.6%. Get an email the day the regime changes, and today's reading right away.
BRK-B: 1 month to 1 year, by market regime
| Regime | 1 month | 2 months | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | +1.7%68%53 | +4.2%76%38 | +6.6%77%27 | +13.8%84%18 | +22.5%93%10, limited history |
| Mildly On | +1.4%63%90 | +3.2%72%53 | +5.2%78%41 | +9.8%84%24 | +20.5%92%14, limited history |
| Neutral | +0.7%56%138 | +1.6%62%81 | +2.7%68%57 | +7.0%74%33 | +11.5%75%17 |
| Mildly Off Today | +0.5%53%83 | +0.6%53%52 | +0.6%53%39 | +4.4%65%23 | +5.9%70%13, limited history |
| Risk-Off | +2.5%63%26 | +1.8%59%18 | +0.5%53%14, limited history | +7.5%68%11, limited history | too little history: 8 past 12-month periods |
| All regimesbaseline | +1.1%59%213 | +2.0%64%107 | +3.1%67%73 | +7.4%75%36 | +13.7%79%18 |
Figures in italics have limited history (10 to 14 past periods); a dash means too little history.
BRK-B: Financials stocks
| Stock | Risk-On | Mildly On | Neutral | Today Mildly Off | Risk-Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector ETF (XLF) Financials | +7.2% | +4.5% | +3.5% | +1.1% | +4.9%, limited history |
| MA Mastercard | +6.1% | +5.2% | +6.0% | +5.8% | +8.5%, limited history |
| XYZ Block | +12.1% | +9.3% | +7.2% | +5.5% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods |
| CINF Cincinnati Financial | +4.4% | +4.3% | +3.9% | +5.3% | +8.2%, limited history |
| V Visa | +4.6% | +4.7% | +5.9% | +5.3% | +8.8%, limited history |
| FISV Fiserv | +4.1% | +3.3% | +5.3% | +4.9% | +7.7%, limited history |
| MSCI MSCI | +5.1% | +5.8% | +6.7% | +4.6% | +12.0%, limited history |
| JKHY Jack Henry | +2.2% | +2.6% | +4.4% | +4.5% | +9.3%, limited history |
| ACGL Arch Capital Group | +6.4% | +4.9% | +3.6% | +4.3% | +6.0%, limited history |
| MCO Moody's | +6.1% | +4.2% | +7.6% | +4.2% | +10.3%, limited history |
| ARES Ares Management | +5.6% | +6.1% | +9.4% | +4.0% | +11.6%, limited history |
| SPGI S&P Global | +5.2% | +2.4% | +6.7% | +4.0% | +10.8%, limited history |
| AIZ Assurant | +8.6% | +5.9% | +3.5% | +3.9% | +4.9%, limited history |
| WRB W. R. Berkley | +6.7% | +3.5% | +3.5% | +3.9% | +8.3%, limited history |
| NDAQ Nasdaq | +3.4% | +2.8% | +5.5% | +3.7% | +8.8%, limited history |
| PGR Progressive | +6.5% | +4.8% | +4.7% | +3.4% | +4.8%, limited history |
| AON Aon | +2.9% | +2.0% | +4.3% | +3.2% | +5.4%, limited history |
| CPAY Corpay | +5.2% | +5.5% | +5.3% | +3.2% | +6.6%, limited history |
| AJG Arthur J. Gallagher | +8.0% | +4.3% | +4.5% | +2.8% | +6.0%, limited history |
| ALL Allstate | +8.0% | +5.3% | +3.8% | +2.8% | +5.9%, limited history |
| MRSH Marsh McLennan | +4.5% | +3.8% | +4.4% | +2.8% | +6.1%, limited history |
| APO Apollo Global Management | +3.6% | +8.2% | +8.2% | +2.7% | +14.1%, limited history |
| KKR KKR | +9.3% | +8.3% | +7.3% | +2.6% | +7.9%, limited history |
| EG Everest Group | +5.9% | +2.5% | +3.1% | +2.5% | +4.1%, limited history |
| FIS Fidelity National Information Services | +2.9% | +4.2% | +3.4% | +2.5% | +3.5%, limited history |
| AFL Aflac | +6.4% | +4.1% | +4.3% | +2.4% | +9.1%, limited history |
| CB Chubb | +4.9% | +4.6% | +4.4% | +2.4% | +6.1%, limited history |
| CME CME Group | +7.7% | +5.5% | +4.8% | +2.4% | −1.8%, limited history |
| RJF Raymond James | +8.2% | +5.4% | +5.2% | +2.4% | +9.8%, limited history |
| GPN Global Payments | +3.7% | +1.6% | +4.1% | +2.3% | +11.4%, limited history |
| TRV Travelers | +6.6% | +4.6% | +3.6% | +2.2% | +6.2%, limited history |
| CBOE Cboe Global Markets | +7.6% | +8.4% | +6.1% | +2.0% | +3.0%, limited history |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity | +5.6% | +4.8% | +3.4% | +2.0% | +6.5%, limited history |
| GL Globe Life | +8.6% | +4.4% | +4.6% | +2.0% | +7.0%, limited history |
| HIG The Hartford | +7.1% | +4.5% | +3.2% | +2.0% | +4.3%, limited history |
| AXP American Express | +9.4% | +9.8% | +4.7% | +1.8% | −0.5%, limited history |
| BRO Brown & Brown | +4.2% | +4.8% | +4.1% | +1.5% | +4.8%, limited history |
| ICE Intercontinental Exchange | +3.9% | +4.9% | +4.4% | +1.5% | +5.4%, limited history |
| SCHW Charles Schwab | +8.8% | +4.6% | +4.0% | +1.4% | +7.9%, limited history |
| PYPL PayPal | +7.3% | +6.0% | −0.8% | +1.3% | +12.5%, limited history |
| BNY BNY | +6.9% | +4.7% | +4.7% | +1.2% | +7.0%, limited history |
| BX Blackstone | +9.2% | +4.2% | +9.1% | +1.1% | +7.9%, limited history |
| AIG AIG | +2.1% | +2.3% | +2.8% | +1.0% | +1.7%, limited history |
| JPM JPMorgan Chase | +8.0% | +5.3% | +5.1% | +1.0% | +4.4%, limited history |
| MET MetLife | +8.0% | +3.6% | +1.8% | +1.0% | +4.8%, limited history |
| IBKR Interactive Brokers | +3.7% | +6.3% | +4.1% | +0.9% | +6.1%, limited history |
| HBAN Huntington Bancshares | +7.8% | +4.1% | +3.5% | +0.8% | +8.3%, limited history |
| FDS FactSet | +2.3% | +1.6% | +4.9% | +0.7% | +5.0%, limited history |
| GS Goldman Sachs | +9.5% | +7.1% | +3.4% | +0.7% | +5.2%, limited history |
| BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.6% | +5.2% | +2.7% | +0.6% | +0.5%, limited history |
| WTW Willis Towers Watson | +6.5% | +1.7% | +2.3% | +0.6% | +7.5%, limited history |
| BLK BlackRock | +7.2% | +4.5% | +4.4% | +0.5% | +11.7%, limited history |
| WFC Wells Fargo | +5.9% | +5.5% | +3.2% | +0.5% | +4.1%, limited history |
| USB U.S. Bancorp | +7.7% | +4.0% | +2.9% | +0.3% | +5.3%, limited history |
| KEY KeyCorp | +3.5% | +5.6% | +3.6% | +0.2% | +6.1%, limited history |
| PFG Principal Financial | +10.0% | +6.2% | +3.8% | +0.1% | +6.9%, limited history |
| AMP Ameriprise Financial | +12.6% | +8.1% | +6.8% | 0.0% | +8.3%, limited history |
| MS Morgan Stanley | +9.3% | +7.1% | +4.9% | 0.0% | +5.8%, limited history |
| RF Regions Financial | +8.8% | +5.4% | +2.8% | 0.0% | +7.2%, limited history |
| TROW T. Rowe Price | +4.7% | +4.0% | +3.1% | 0.0% | +7.0%, limited history |
| NTRS Northern Trust | +5.3% | +4.6% | +3.4% | −0.2% | +7.0%, limited history |
| CFG Citizens Financial | +12.0% | +9.0% | +2.6% | −0.3% | +8.1%, limited history |
| TFC Truist | +6.4% | +4.7% | +3.1% | −0.4% | +6.7%, limited history |
| PRU Prudential Financial | +8.2% | +5.5% | +2.7% | −0.5% | +5.5%, limited history |
| L Loews | +5.9% | +4.3% | +3.0% | −0.6% | +3.5%, limited history |
| PNC PNC Financial | +10.6% | +6.2% | +3.8% | −0.7% | +5.9%, limited history |
| COF Capital One | +8.9% | +5.6% | +3.3% | −1.0% | +1.5%, limited history |
| MTB M&T Bank | +6.1% | +4.8% | +3.3% | −1.1% | +4.5%, limited history |
| STT State Street | +7.6% | +4.5% | +4.2% | −1.2% | +7.2%, limited history |
| FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | +10.1% | +6.3% | +4.0% | −1.3% | +6.6%, limited history |
| BAC Bank of America | +10.0% | +6.6% | +3.8% | −1.4% | +2.3%, limited history |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | +9.0% | +10.6% | +2.4% | −1.5% | +5.5%, limited history |
| C Citigroup | +6.1% | +5.9% | +3.0% | −1.6% | +4.0%, limited history |
| BEN Franklin Resources | +6.8% | +1.3% | +1.9% | −2.7% | 0.0%, limited history |
| ALLY Ally Financial | +6.1% | +6.4% | +1.1% | −3.6% | −1.5%, limited history |
| NMR Nomura Holdings | +3.4% | −0.9% | −1.0% | −3.6% | −4.4%, limited history |
| IVZ Invesco | +10.2% | +4.4% | +2.0% | −5.4% | +7.1%, limited history |
| RIOT Riot Platforms | +6.7% | −0.3% | +3.2% | −23.4% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| MARA MARA Holdings | −12.1% | −6.2% | +6.3% | −24.0% | −10.9%, limited history |
| COIN Coinbase | too little history: 5 past 3-month periods | −3.5%, limited history | +11.6% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods | too little history: 4 past 3-month periods |
| HOOD Robinhood | too little history: 5 past 3-month periods | +12.3%, limited history | +9.2% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods | too little history: 4 past 3-month periods |
| SOFI SoFi | too little history: 7 past 3-month periods | −5.9%, limited history | +1.2% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods | too little history: 4 past 3-month periods |
Sector ETF: XLF's own typical return, the figure on its page.
BRK-B versus the market
BRK-B's typical 3-month return moves 1.4 times as much as the S&P 500's from one regime to another (BRK-B +0.5% to +6.6%, S&P 500 +1.7% to +6.0%).
Today's reading: 17th percentile (0 most Risk-Off, 100 most Risk-On), as of Friday's close, Oct 16.
Unlike the market, BRK-B's weakest regime has been Risk-Off, not Mildly Off. BRK-B has not shared the market's bounce from Risk-Off: its typical return there sat below its typical return across all markets.
How to read this
Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what BRK-B did after past days in each market regime. They are not forecasts: any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from the last two decades may not hold in the years ahead.
The numbers. The typical return is the median: the middle outcome, with half of past periods better and half worse. The usual range holds 8 in 10 of them, from the 10th to the 90th percentile. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, shown as a dash. BRK-B history from January 3, 2006, data through October 16, 2026.
About the same. The sentence under the title sets BRK-B's typical return in today's regime against its typical return across all markets; figures within half a point, or within a tenth of the larger one, count as about the same. The section on BRK-B versus the market sets how far its typical return moves across regimes against the S&P 500's move, which says nothing about better or worse overall.
Single stocks. For one stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; its own trend dominates. Use it as context, not a reason to act. Why the mild-stress Dead Zone has been the weakest place to be.