Regime Card
← Market Regime
Historical Regime
Daily US market-regime percentile
Higher = risk-on · switch the window to re-rank · drag or pinch to zoom · why 5Y?
Methodology
Regime Card is a daily read of US market risk, built from eight cross-asset signals. Each is ranked against its own history and blended into a single 0–100 percentile: higher means more risk-on, lower more risk-off. The percentile maps to one of five bands: Risk-Off · Mildly Off · Neutral · Mildly On · Risk-On.
The signals
How to read it
The line is the regime percentile over time. Switch the ranking window to re-rank every day against that window's own history. The same day can read differently depending on the comparison period. Higher on the chart is more risk-on; lower is more risk-off. The green diamond is the latest close (may be provisional). Hover any point for its date, percentile, and regime; drag across the chart to zoom, then Reset zoom to restore.
Why five years is the default
The default ranking window isn't arbitrary: the length of the comparison period decides what the score means. Too short, say a single year, and the bands recalibrate too fast: after an extended stretch of stress the recent distribution shifts, and a given percentile stops carrying a consistent meaning over time. Too long, and the comparison drags in regimes that no longer reflect the current market structure.
Five years is the balance: wide enough to span a full market cycle, so the score holds a stable, comparable meaning across regimes rather than drifting with the last few months, and rolling forward so it stays anchored to the prevailing environment rather than a crash from a decade ago. It's consistent with the length of a typical market cycle: post-war U.S. business cycles have averaged roughly six years trough-to-trough, with wide variation (NBER).
Honest limits
Descriptive, not predictive. It describes where market risk sits today relative to history, not a forecast, not a trade signal. Percentiles are relative to the selected window, so a high or low reading reflects the chosen comparison period, not an absolute level. Informational only, not investment advice.