Historical Regime

Daily US market-regime percentile · 2008–present

Higher = risk-on · switch the window to re-rank · drag or pinch to zoom

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RISK-OFF MILDLY OFF NEUTRAL MILDLY ON RISK-ON latest close

Methodology

Regime Card is a daily read of US market risk, built from eight cross-asset signals. Each is ranked against its own history and blended into a single 0–100 percentile — higher means more risk-on, lower more risk-off. The percentile maps to one of five bands: Risk-Off · Mildly Off · Neutral · Mildly On · Risk-On.

The signals

Credit stressSpread dynamics

Equity vol regimeIV structure

Bond market volRates uncertainty

Currency carryFX risk appetite

Commodity growthIndustrial demand

Sector leadershipCyclical strength

Defensive rotationRisk positioning

Yield curveTerm structure

How to read it

The line is the regime percentile over time. Switch the ranking window to re-rank every day against that window's own history — the same day can read differently depending on the comparison period. Higher on the chart is more risk-on; lower is more risk-off. The green marker is the latest close (may be provisional). Hover any point for its date, percentile, and regime; drag across the chart to zoom, then Reset zoom to restore.

Honest limits

Descriptive, not predictive. It describes where market risk sits today relative to history — not a forecast, not a trade signal. Percentiles are relative to the selected window, so a high or low reading reflects the chosen comparison period, not an absolute level. Informational only — not investment advice.