Regime Card
← Market Regime
Returns by Regime
What the market has historically done from each regime. Base rates, not forecasts.
The market's strongest returns have historically come from the calm extremes: Risk-On, and the bounce off Risk-Off. The mild-stress 'Dead Zone' in the middle has been the weakest place to be.
Each band shows where 80% of outcomes landed, low to high, with a tick at the typical return. Red where returns were negative, green where positive, deeper with size; the line marks zero. All five share one scale. Base rates, not forecasts.
Check a specific stock
Enter a ticker to see how it's behaved by regime.
Each band shows where 80% of this stock's outcomes landed, low to high, with a tick at the typical return. Red where returns were negative, green where positive, deeper with size; the line marks zero. Bands with under 10 independent windows are hidden. Historical base rates, not a forecast.
Methodology
How to read this
Every trading day, the regime sits in one of five bands, from Risk-Off to Risk-On. This page asks a simple question: historically, when the market has been in each band, what happened next? The top chart shows the median forward return for SPY over the next 1, 3, or 6 months from each band, alongside how often that return was positive. The pattern is not a straight line. The weakest forward returns cluster in Mildly-Off (the "Dead Zone"), while Risk-Off has historically bounced hard off oversold conditions. Higher band does not mean better return.
Historical base rates, not forecasts
These are descriptions of what has happened, not predictions of what will. A median is a typical past outcome, not a guarantee. The spread around it is wide, and any single instance can land far from the median. Markets change; a base rate built on the last two decades may not hold in the next. Treat this as context for understanding the current environment, not a forecast, and not a trade signal.
Why some bands say "insufficient"
A band's reliability depends on how many independent observations stand behind it. Because forward-return windows overlap, the honest count is the number of non-overlapping windows. At longer horizons, or for stocks with short trading histories, that count gets thin fast. Where a band has fewer than ten independent windows, we hide the number rather than show a figure built on too little data. A recently-listed stock will show "insufficient" across most bands. That is the data being honest about what it can and can't support.
Regime is a minor input for single stocks
For an individual stock, the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; the stock's own trend dominates. The single-stock chart shows that stock's own forward returns by regime, in the same format as the market map: a tick at the typical return, and a band showing where 80% of outcomes landed. Notice the typical returns tend to cluster across regimes, which is the point. For one stock the regime is a minor input, not a buy or sell signal. Use it as context among many inputs, not a reason to act.