About Regime Card

Regime Card is built and run by an independent swing trader and software developer. It started as the question he asked every morning before trading: what kind of market is this, and how have stocks behaved in markets like it before?

What it is

Every trading day, Regime Card reads US market risk conditions from eight cross-asset signals and settles one reading on the close: a percentile from 0 to 100 and one of five regimes, Risk-Off, Mildly Off, Neutral, Mildly On and Risk-On. The percentile ranks the day against the market's own history. It describes today; it is not a forecast.

Each reading is published shortly after the 4:00 PM ET close and starts as provisional. Two of the eight inputs are released one day later. When they arrive, the reading is updated, and the label can change. Once it is final, the history shows the final value. Every version stays on the public record. Check it yourself.

The eight signals, by category:

• Credit stress · Spread dynamics
• Equity vol regime · IV structure
• Bond market vol · Rates uncertainty
• Currency carry · FX risk appetite
• Commodity growth · Industrial demand
• Sector leadership · Cyclical strength
• Defensive rotation · Risk positioning
• Yield curve · Term structure

What a regime is, and how each day is placed in one: What is a market regime? What the two ends of the scale mean: What is risk-on and risk-off? More questions, answered: Questions about market regimes.

What the site shows

• Today's reading: the percentile and the regime, one reading per trading day, published after the 4:00 PM ET close.
• Returns by Regime: what the S&P 500 has done in each regime, 1 month to 1 year, with the same figures for US stocks and major cryptocurrencies.
• Historical Regime: the reading every day since 2008, and what the S&P 500 did in the days after.
• The record: every reading the site publishes is written into a record that can't be quietly changed later, and anyone can check it.
• The Market's Dead Zone: why the mildly stressed market has been the weakest place to be.

What is published and what is not

The reading, the regime and the eight category names are public. The weights, the thresholds and the formula that combine the signals are not published.

Every figure on the site describes what happened in the past. They are base rates, not forecasts, and nothing here is investment advice.

Contact

• Questions, corrections and data requestshello@regimecard.com
• Privacy requestsprivacy@regimecard.com
• Updates on X@regimecard