What risk-on and risk-off mean
Risk-on. Investors are willing to hold riskier assets: stocks rise, credit spreads are calm and volatility is low.
Risk-off. The reverse: money moves toward safety, credit spreads widen and volatility rises.
In between. The two are the ends of a scale, not a switch. Most days fall in between, which is why Regime Card reports five regimes, not two.
How Regime Card measures it
Eight signals. Regime Card reads US market risk conditions across asset classes, not stocks alone, from eight signals in these categories:
- Credit stress · Spread dynamics
- Equity vol regime · IV structure
- Bond market vol · Rates uncertainty
- Currency carry · FX risk appetite
- Commodity growth · Industrial demand
- Sector leadership · Cyclical strength
- Defensive rotation · Risk positioning
- Yield curve · Term structure
One percentile. They combine into a percentile from 0 to 100 that ranks the day against the market's own history: 0 is the most risk-off reading, 100 the most risk-on.
Five regimes. The percentile places each day in one of five regimes:
- Risk-On Cross-asset conditions broadly favor risk, with credit, volatility, and positioning aligned constructively.
- Mildly On Conditions lean constructive: the balance of signals favors risk, though a minority remain cautious.
- Neutral Signals are mixed, with risk-on and risk-off forces roughly balanced and no clear regime in control.
- Mildly Off Conditions are turning defensive, with a growing share of signals reflecting caution and stress building beneath the surface.
- Risk-Off Cross-asset conditions reflect broad risk aversion, with stress evident across credit, volatility, and positioning.
Settled daily. One reading is settled each US market day after the close. The categories are public; the weights and thresholds that combine them are not published. Today's reading.
What it has meant for returns
The S&P 500 by regime. The S&P 500 chart shows what the index did over the 3 months after past days in each regime: its typical return, its usual range and how often it rose.
Today's regime. In past Mildly Off markets, the S&P 500's typical 3-month return was +1.7%, rising 61% of the time, the lowest of the five regimes.
Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what has happened, not what will. Any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from the last two decades may not hold in the next.
Limited and too little history. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means a figure rests on 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, and no figure is shown.
Where to look next
- Today's reading: the percentile and the regime, updated after each close.
- What is a market regime?: what a regime is, with examples, and how each day is placed in one.
- Returns by Regime: what the S&P 500 did in each regime, from 1 month to 1 year.
- Stocks in Risk-Off markets, ranked: 201 US stocks by their typical return after past Risk-Off days.
- Stocks by market regime: the same figures for each of 201 US stocks.
- Crypto by market regime: the same figures for 21 major cryptocurrencies.
- CNN's Fear & Greed Index vs Regime Card: how a regime reading differs from a stock sentiment gauge.
- Historical Regime: the daily reading since 2008.
Common questions
What does risk-off mean?
Risk-off describes a market where investors are avoiding risk: money moves toward safety, credit spreads widen and volatility rises. Risk-on is the reverse. On Regime Card, Risk-Off is also the name of the regime at the low end of the scale.
Is the market risk-on or risk-off right now?
As of Oct 1, 2026, the US market is Mildly Off: the 28th percentile on Regime Card's scale from Risk-Off (0) to Risk-On (100). A new reading is published every US market day.
Which assets do investors favor in risk-off markets?
In risk-off markets investors tend to favor lower-risk holdings over riskier ones. Regime Card's own history shows what followed past Risk-Off days: the S&P 500 figures on this page, and the Risk-Off ranking of 201 US stocks. This is history only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.
What is an example of risk-on and risk-off?
A risk-on stretch looks like this: stocks rise, credit spreads stay calm and volatility is low. A risk-off stretch is the reverse: money moves toward safety, credit spreads widen and volatility rises. Most days sit between the two, which is why Regime Card has three regimes in the middle: Mildly Off, Neutral and Mildly On.