The idea
Conditions, not a day. A regime is the backdrop that each day's news and prices arrive in. It describes conditions that persist, so one strong or weak session does not make a regime on its own.
The same news, two regimes. Take a company that reports weaker earnings than investors hoped for. In a risk-on regime, a disappointment like this may be looked past. In a risk-off regime, investors are already moving toward safety, and the same report may meet heavier selling.
Not a forecast. A regime describes conditions as they are. It does not say what prices will do next.
How regimes are usually identified
There is no single standard. Analysts and researchers use a few broad approaches:
- Rules on market measures. A market is called risk-off when, for example, volatility is high and credit spreads are wide, and risk-on when both are calm.
- Statistical models. The data sorts past periods into a small number of states, each with its own typical returns and swings, and a model estimates which state the market is in now.
- Composite readings. Several markets, such as stocks, credit, rates and currencies, are combined into one reading, and its scale is divided into a few named ranges.
Each approach trades speed against false alarms: a method that reacts quickly also reacts to noise. Regime Card publishes its eight input categories, not its method; the weights and thresholds that combine them are not published.
Why one reading a day
A regime is about conditions that persist, so Regime Card reads the market once per US market day, at the close, rather than following every move inside the session. The reading is published after the 4:00 PM ET close and settled at 4:30 PM ET.
Each reading names the close it describes, and goes into the public record as it is published.
The five labels
Regime Card reads US market risk conditions across asset classes, not stocks alone, from eight signals in these categories:
- Credit stress · Spread dynamics
- Equity vol regime · IV structure
- Bond market vol · Rates uncertainty
- Currency carry · FX risk appetite
- Commodity growth · Industrial demand
- Sector leadership · Cyclical strength
- Defensive rotation · Risk positioning
- Yield curve · Term structure
They combine into a percentile from 0 to 100, and the percentile falls in one of five regimes:
- Risk-On Investors are taking risk freely. Markets are calm across the board.
- Mildly On Investors are leaning toward risk. Conditions are mostly calm, with a few cautious signals.
- Neutral Neither side is in charge. Investors are not chasing risk or running from it.
- Mildly Off Investors are turning cautious. Stress is building, and this is where market drops have often started.
- Risk-Off Investors are moving to safety. Markets are under stress, with the widest swings in either direction.
The two ends of the scale are risk-on and risk-off.
Today's reading
The figure at the top of this page is today's settled reading: the percentile and the regime it falls in. The home page carries the same reading, and Historical Regime charts the daily reading since 2008.
Common questions
What market regime are we in?
As of Nov 10, 2026, the US market is Mildly Off: the 15th percentile on Regime Card's scale from Risk-Off (0) to Risk-On (100). A new reading is published every US market day.
How is a regime different from sentiment?
Sentiment is how investors feel, usually read from stock market indicators. A regime is the state of risk conditions across markets: credit, rates, currencies and commodities alongside stocks. The two can differ on the same day: see CNN's Fear & Greed Index vs Regime Card.
Can a regime be verified later?
Yes. Every settled reading goes into the public record as it is published, stored so that none can be changed after the fact without leaving a trace. Anyone can check a past reading there.