What a market regime is
A state, not an event. A market regime is a persistent state of risk conditions: how willing investors are to hold risk, and how calm or stressed credit and volatility are. It is the backdrop that each day's news and prices arrive in.
Not a forecast. A regime describes conditions as they are today. It does not say what prices will do next.
The same news, two regimes. Take a company that reports weaker earnings than investors hoped for. In a risk-on regime, investors are willing to hold risk, and a disappointment like this may be looked past. In a risk-off regime, investors are already moving toward safety, and the same report may meet heavier selling. The news is the same; the conditions it lands in are not.
Two ends of one scale. Risk-on and risk-off are the two ends of the scale a regime sits on: Risk-On vs Risk-Off, explained.
How Regime Card classifies the day
Eight signals. Regime Card reads US market risk conditions across asset classes, not stocks alone, from eight signals in these categories:
- Credit stress · Spread dynamics
- Equity vol regime · IV structure
- Bond market vol · Rates uncertainty
- Currency carry · FX risk appetite
- Commodity growth · Industrial demand
- Sector leadership · Cyclical strength
- Defensive rotation · Risk positioning
- Yield curve · Term structure
One percentile. They combine into a percentile from 0 to 100 that ranks the day against the market's own history: 0 is the most risk-off reading, 100 the most risk-on.
Five regimes. The percentile places each day in one of five regimes:
- Risk-On Cross-asset conditions broadly favor risk, with credit, volatility, and positioning aligned constructively.
- Mildly On Conditions lean constructive: the balance of signals favors risk, though a minority remain cautious.
- Neutral Signals are mixed, with risk-on and risk-off forces roughly balanced and no clear regime in control.
- Mildly Off Conditions are turning defensive, with a growing share of signals reflecting caution and stress building beneath the surface.
- Risk-Off Cross-asset conditions reflect broad risk aversion, with stress evident across credit, volatility, and positioning.
Settled daily. One reading is settled each US market day after the close. The categories are public; the weights and thresholds that combine them are not published. Today's reading.
What each regime has meant for returns
The S&P 500 by regime. The S&P 500 chart shows what the index did over the 3 months after past days in each regime: its typical return, its usual range and how often it rose.
Today's regime. In past Mildly Off markets, the S&P 500's typical 3-month return was +1.7%, rising 61% of the time, the lowest of the five regimes.
Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what has happened, not what will. Any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from the last two decades may not hold in the next.
Limited and too little history. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means a figure rests on 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, and no figure is shown.
Regime versus sentiment
Sentiment is how investors feel, usually read from stock market indicators. A regime is the state of risk conditions across markets: credit, rates, currencies and commodities alongside stocks. A sentiment gauge follows the crowd in one market; a regime reading follows conditions around it. The two can differ on the same day: CNN's Fear & Greed Index vs Regime Card.
Where to look next
- Today's reading: the percentile and the regime, updated after each close.
- Risk-On vs Risk-Off, explained: what the two ends of the scale mean.
- Returns by Regime: what the S&P 500 did in each regime, from 1 month to 1 year.
- Stocks by market regime: the same figures for each of 201 US stocks.
- Stocks in Risk-Off markets, ranked: 201 US stocks by their typical return after past Risk-Off days.
- Stocks in Mildly Off markets, ranked: 201 US stocks by their typical return after past Mildly Off days.
- Crypto by market regime: the same figures for 21 major cryptocurrencies.
- Historical Regime: the daily reading since 2008.
Common questions
What is a market regime?
A market regime is a persistent state of risk conditions: how willing investors are to hold risk, and how calm or stressed credit and volatility are. It describes the market as it is today; it is not a forecast.
What market regime are we in right now?
As of Oct 1, 2026, the US market is Mildly Off: the 28th percentile on Regime Card's scale from Risk-Off (0) to Risk-On (100). A new reading is published every US market day.
What are examples of market regimes?
Regime Card names five: Risk-On, Mildly On, Neutral, Mildly Off and Risk-Off. In a Risk-On regime, credit, volatility and positioning broadly favor risk. In a Risk-Off regime, they reflect broad risk aversion. The three between them cover the days when the signals lean one way or stay mixed.
What is the difference between a market regime and market sentiment?
Sentiment is how investors feel, usually read from stock market indicators. A regime is the state of risk conditions across markets: credit, rates, currencies and commodities alongside stocks. The two can differ on the same day.