First Solar (FSLR) returns by market regime
In past Mildly Off markets, FSLR's typical 3-month return was −4.7%, rising 44% of the time, below its +0.1% across all markets.
FSLR: typical return and usual range
Tick: typical return · Bar ends: usual range · Dashed line: 0% · Arrow: runs past the edge
Typical return −0.4%, usual range −19% to +22%.How often it rose: 50%
Typical return +1.4%, usual range −17% to +22%.How often it rose: 54%
Typical return −0.6%, usual range −18% to +19%.How often it rose: 48%
Typical return −1.0%, usual range −15% to +19%.How often it rose: 47%
Typical return +4.8%, usual range −26% to +29%.How often it rose: 62%
Typical return +0.8%, usual range −22% to +34%.How often it rose: 51%
Typical return −0.6%, usual range −21% to +30%.How often it rose: 49%
Typical return +0.2%, usual range −25% to +28%.How often it rose: 50%
Typical return −0.4%, usual range −24% to +32%.How often it rose: 49%
Typical return +7.9%, usual range −41% to +41%.How often it rose: 61%
Typical return +0.5%, usual range −27% to +41%.How often it rose: 50%
Typical return +0.4%, usual range −26% to +44%.How often it rose: 50%
Typical return +0.7%, usual range −28% to +36%.How often it rose: 51%
Typical return −4.7%, usual range −28% to +42%.How often it rose: 44%
Typical return +14.8%, usual range −47% to +63%, limited history.How often it rose: 63%
Typical return +1.7%, usual range −30% to +61%.How often it rose: 52%
Typical return +7.1%, usual range −29% to +54%.How often it rose: 56%
Typical return +2.2%, usual range −38% to +57%.How often it rose: 52%
Typical return −4.5%, usual range −60% to +72%.How often it rose: 47%
Typical return +26.6%, usual range −58% to +113%, limited history.How often it rose: 63%
Typical return +8.7%, usual range −28% to +78%, limited history.How often it rose: 54%
Typical return +7.1%, usual range −33% to +77%, limited history.How often it rose: 58%
Typical return +6.0%, usual range −48% to +88%.How often it rose: 54%
Typical return −1.7%, usual range −52% to +158%, limited history.How often it rose: 49%
Know when the regime changes
FSLR's typical 3-month return in past Mildly Off markets was −4.7%. Get an email the day the regime changes, and today's reading right away.
FSLR: 1 month to 1 year, by market regime
| Regime | 1 month | 2 months | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | −0.4%50%53 | +0.8%51%38 | +0.5%50%27 | +1.7%52%18 | +8.7%54%10, limited history |
| Mildly On | +1.4%54%90 | −0.6%49%53 | +0.4%50%41 | +7.1%56%24 | +7.1%58%14, limited history |
| Neutral | −0.6%48%138 | +0.2%50%81 | +0.7%51%57 | +2.2%52%33 | +6.0%54%17 |
| Mildly Off Today | −1.0%47%83 | −0.4%49%52 | −4.7%44%39 | −4.5%47%23 | −1.7%49%13, limited history |
| Risk-Off | +4.8%62%26 | +7.9%61%18 | +14.8%63%14, limited history | +26.6%63%11, limited history | too little history: 8 past 12-month periods |
| All regimesbaseline | +0.1%50%213 | +0.5%51%107 | +0.1%50%73 | +3.2%52%36 | +6.0%54%18 |
Figures in italics have limited history (10 to 14 past periods); a dash means too little history.
FSLR: Technology stocks
| Stock | Risk-On | Mildly On | Neutral | Today Mildly Off | Risk-Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector ETF (XLK) Technology | +5.9% | +5.8% | +5.7% | +2.9% | +7.3%, limited history |
| TTD The Trade Desk | −5.0% | +11.8% | +9.1% | +15.0% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| TWLO Twilio | +1.6% | +2.2% | +6.1% | +12.6% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| FICO Fair Isaac | +3.5% | +5.8% | +7.0% | +9.0% | +18.3%, limited history |
| SHOP Shopify | +8.9% | +10.0% | +13.5% | +8.2% | +25.1%, limited history |
| FTNT Fortinet | +3.5% | +3.5% | +10.7% | +7.8% | +13.9%, limited history |
| MPWR Monolithic Power Systems | +9.3% | +7.4% | +7.0% | +7.8% | +14.0%, limited history |
| PANW Palo Alto Networks | +3.8% | +4.7% | +9.4% | +7.7% | +10.7%, limited history |
| MTSI MACOM Technology | +0.2% | +9.0% | +6.1% | +7.6% | +20.3%, limited history |
| OKTA Okta | +0.3%, limited history | +7.8% | +8.2% | +7.1% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| AVGO Broadcom | +7.0% | +9.1% | +10.5% | +7.0% | +13.4%, limited history |
| TYL Tyler Technologies | +2.9% | +4.5% | +7.9% | +6.9% | +13.4%, limited history |
| CDNS Cadence Design Systems | +2.6% | +3.7% | +8.6% | +6.4% | +11.0%, limited history |
| CDW CDW | +7.1% | +5.0% | +5.0% | +6.4% | +12.2%, limited history |
| KEYS Keysight Technologies | +4.0% | +5.3% | +6.1% | +6.3% | +15.0%, limited history |
| ZBRA Zebra Technologies | +9.8% | +6.1% | +6.1% | +5.7% | +9.5%, limited history |
| JBL Jabil | +7.4% | +3.6% | +5.6% | +5.6% | +13.2%, limited history |
| SNPS Synopsys | +1.3% | +4.1% | +6.2% | +5.4% | +10.7%, limited history |
| NVDA NVIDIA | +7.3% | +12.1% | +11.3% | +5.3% | +18.6%, limited history |
| AAPL Apple | +8.6% | +9.5% | +7.3% | +5.0% | +5.6%, limited history |
| ADI Analog Devices | +3.9% | +4.6% | +3.8% | +4.8% | +11.3%, limited history |
| TSM Taiwan Semiconductor | +6.5% | +5.4% | +7.2% | +4.6% | +9.4%, limited history |
| VRSN Verisign | +2.6% | +3.5% | +5.9% | +4.6% | +14.2%, limited history |
| SMCI Super Micro Computer | +3.5% | +5.1% | +6.5% | +4.5% | +14.5%, limited history |
| INTU Intuit | +4.4% | +5.7% | +6.2% | +4.3% | +9.5%, limited history |
| NOW ServiceNow | +8.5% | +8.4% | +10.3% | +4.2% | +13.0%, limited history |
| MSFT Microsoft | +6.3% | +6.1% | +5.8% | +4.1% | +4.8%, limited history |
| MSI Motorola Solutions | +9.8% | +6.6% | +5.6% | +4.1% | +7.3%, limited history |
| CSCO Cisco | +4.1% | +3.5% | +2.2% | +4.0% | +8.2%, limited history |
| TDY Teledyne Technologies | +6.5% | +3.8% | +4.1% | +4.0% | +7.4%, limited history |
| MCHP Microchip Technology | +3.3% | +3.5% | +5.3% | +3.9% | +12.0%, limited history |
| ASML ASML Holding | +12.4% | +8.5% | +6.5% | +3.7% | +10.8%, limited history |
| GDDY GoDaddy | +1.6% | +7.2% | +2.6% | +3.6% | +8.0%, limited history |
| HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise | +7.3% | +3.9% | +2.4% | +3.5% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods |
| NET Cloudflare | +10.1%, limited history | +14.2% | +21.1% | +3.4%, limited history | too little history: 5 past 3-month periods |
| PTC PTC | +5.5% | +2.8% | +4.4% | +3.3% | +9.8%, limited history |
| ADBE Adobe | +6.7% | +4.3% | +5.4% | +3.2% | +7.7%, limited history |
| TXN Texas Instruments | +7.8% | +5.6% | +3.6% | +3.1% | +11.0%, limited history |
| APH Amphenol | +6.4% | +6.4% | +6.8% | +2.8% | +8.8%, limited history |
| FLEX Flex | +8.3% | +8.3% | +2.6% | +2.5% | +13.9%, limited history |
| IBM IBM | +2.8% | +3.8% | +2.3% | +2.2% | +6.6%, limited history |
| CIEN Ciena | +2.6% | +6.1% | +7.7% | +2.1% | +3.6%, limited history |
| CRM Salesforce | +3.4% | +6.4% | +7.4% | +2.0% | +6.2%, limited history |
| KLAC KLA | +11.0% | +7.7% | +7.3% | +2.0% | +20.4%, limited history |
| GEN Gen Digital | +7.0% | +0.2% | +2.3% | +1.8% | +1.5%, limited history |
| AMAT Applied Materials | +12.3% | +8.9% | +6.4% | +1.7% | +10.3%, limited history |
| COHR Coherent | +8.5% | +6.2% | +3.0% | +1.7% | +3.3%, limited history |
| ACN Accenture | +4.1% | +5.1% | +6.1% | +1.6% | +7.3%, limited history |
| ROP Roper Technologies | +2.0% | +3.7% | +4.7% | +1.6% | +8.0%, limited history |
| INTC Intel | +1.9% | +1.7% | +2.2% | +1.5% | +9.6%, limited history |
| LSCC Lattice Semiconductor | +7.0% | +8.6% | +4.6% | +1.5% | +20.3%, limited history |
| IT Gartner | +8.4% | +5.3% | +6.2% | +1.4% | +5.5%, limited history |
| P Everpure | −4.4% | +3.9% | +9.6% | +1.4% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods |
| LITE Lumentum | +0.2% | +6.0% | +8.3% | +1.3% | +7.5%, limited history |
| TER Teradyne | +9.4% | +9.9% | +5.7% | +1.3% | +11.1%, limited history |
| MSTR Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) | −1.1% | +2.4% | +3.9% | +1.1% | +6.0%, limited history |
| ORCL Oracle | +4.9% | +2.2% | +4.3% | +1.1% | +6.6%, limited history |
| AKAM Akamai Technologies | +0.9% | +6.5% | +3.7% | +0.9% | +7.2%, limited history |
| ADSK Autodesk | +4.1% | +3.5% | +4.0% | +0.7% | +12.2%, limited history |
| DELL Dell Technologies | +21.1% | +10.7% | +7.2% | +0.6% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| LRCX Lam Research | +11.1% | +10.3% | +7.5% | +0.4% | +9.2%, limited history |
| ANET Arista Networks | +13.5% | +17.1% | +11.5% | +0.3% | +7.2%, limited history |
| WDAY Workday | +7.1% | +2.2% | +5.9% | +0.2% | +8.1%, limited history |
| AMD Advanced Micro Devices | +2.4% | +6.8% | +8.4% | +0.1% | +6.7%, limited history |
| NXPI NXP Semiconductors | +5.5% | +5.7% | +5.6% | −0.1% | +11.0%, limited history |
| GLW Corning | +11.3% | +7.3% | +3.0% | −0.3% | +3.9%, limited history |
| CTSH Cognizant | +4.5% | +5.7% | +5.6% | −0.4% | +3.7%, limited history |
| FFIV F5 | +9.2% | +7.8% | +5.6% | −0.4% | +3.4%, limited history |
| QCOM Qualcomm | −3.0% | +2.7% | +5.0% | −0.4% | +4.3%, limited history |
| TEL TE Connectivity | +7.3% | +6.8% | +5.5% | −0.6% | +8.0%, limited history |
| ON ON Semiconductor | +8.2% | +1.2% | +3.6% | −0.8% | +14.5%, limited history |
| ZS Zscaler | +4.9%, limited history | +6.3% | +14.1% | −0.9% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| STX Seagate Technology | +17.0% | +10.4% | +7.2% | −1.2% | +0.7%, limited history |
| ENPH Enphase Energy | +8.7% | +6.6% | −1.2% | −1.9% | +9.6%, limited history |
| HPQ HP | +12.7% | +5.3% | +2.8% | −2.4% | +0.1%, limited history |
| MU Micron | +20.3% | +16.5% | +9.9% | −2.6% | −1.0%, limited history |
| NTAP NetApp | +11.9% | +9.0% | +5.7% | −2.8% | +0.9%, limited history |
| SWKS Skyworks Solutions | +5.7% | +4.6% | +4.6% | −3.1% | +5.5%, limited history |
| WDC Western Digital | +17.7% | +12.8% | +5.5% | −3.8% | −4.7%, limited history |
| FSLR First Solar | +0.5% | +0.4% | +0.7% | −4.7% | +14.8%, limited history |
| TRMB Trimble | +6.7% | +4.6% | +4.6% | −5.0% | +7.6%, limited history |
| MRVL Marvell Technology | +9.9% | +10.4% | +7.2% | −5.3% | +2.5%, limited history |
| DDOG Datadog | −1.1%, limited history | +2.6% | +17.3% | −7.0%, limited history | too little history: 5 past 3-month periods |
| CRWD CrowdStrike | +10.4%, limited history | +17.9% | +15.4% | −10.9%, limited history | too little history: 6 past 3-month periods |
| CRDO Credo Technology | too little history: 5 past 3-month periods | +0.8%, limited history | +32.9%, limited history | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods | too little history: 4 past 3-month periods |
| PLTR Palantir | too little history: 7 past 3-month periods | +11.4% | +13.6% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods | too little history: 4 past 3-month periods |
| SNOW Snowflake | too little history: 7 past 3-month periods | −4.1% | +12.9% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods | too little history: 4 past 3-month periods |
Sector ETF: XLK's own typical return, the figure on its page.
FSLR versus the market
FSLR's typical 3-month return moves 4.6 times as much as the S&P 500's from one regime to another (FSLR −4.7% to +14.8%, S&P 500 +1.7% to +6.0%).
Today's reading: 17th percentile (0 most Risk-Off, 100 most Risk-On), as of Friday's close, Oct 16.
FSLR shares the market's weakest regime, Mildly Off. That is today's regime. FSLR has historically shared the market's bounce from Risk-Off.
How to read this
Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what FSLR did after past days in each market regime. They are not forecasts: any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from the last two decades may not hold in the years ahead.
The numbers. The typical return is the median: the middle outcome, with half of past periods better and half worse. The usual range holds 8 in 10 of them, from the 10th to the 90th percentile. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, shown as a dash. FSLR history from November 17, 2006, data through October 16, 2026.
About the same. The sentence under the title sets FSLR's typical return in today's regime against its typical return across all markets; figures within half a point, or within a tenth of the larger one, count as about the same. The section on FSLR versus the market sets how far its typical return moves across regimes against the S&P 500's move, which says nothing about better or worse overall.
Single stocks. For one stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; its own trend dominates. Use it as context, not a reason to act. Why the mild-stress Dead Zone has been the weakest place to be.