Regime CardApple (AAPL) returns by market regime
In past Mildly Off markets, AAPL's typical 3-month return was +5.0%, rising 63% of the time, below its +7.3% across all markets.
Typical return and usual range
Tick: typical return · Bar ends: usual range · Dashed line: 0% · Arrow: runs past the edge
Typical return +4.1%, usual range −8% to +15%.How often it rose: 64%
Typical return +3.4%, usual range −6% to +12%.How often it rose: 68%
Typical return +2.2%, usual range −7% to +11%.How often it rose: 62%
Typical return +0.7%, usual range −11% to +11%.How often it rose: 54%
Typical return +4.9%, usual range −10% to +16%.How often it rose: 65%
Typical return +7.4%, usual range −8% to +22%.How often it rose: 70%
Typical return +6.0%, usual range −7% to +20%.How often it rose: 67%
Typical return +4.4%, usual range −10% to +19%.How often it rose: 66%
Typical return +2.8%, usual range −14% to +18%.How often it rose: 61%
Typical return +5.9%, usual range −9% to +18%.How often it rose: 73%
Typical return +8.6%, usual range −9% to +29%.How often it rose: 73%
Typical return +9.7%, usual range −8% to +26%.How often it rose: 77%
Typical return +7.3%, usual range −13% to +22%.How often it rose: 72%
Typical return +5.0%, usual range −14% to +22%.How often it rose: 63%
Typical return +5.6%, usual range −11% to +28%, limited history.How often it rose: 67%
Typical return +21.4%, usual range +2% to +59%.How often it rose: 91%
Typical return +19.8%, usual range +1% to +39%.How often it rose: 92%
Typical return +13.3%, usual range −15% to +36%.How often it rose: 78%
Typical return +9.9%, usual range −17% to +42%.How often it rose: 61%
Typical return +16.2%, usual range −10% to +62%, limited history.How often it rose: 72%
Typical return +41.7%, usual range +9% to +103%, limited history.How often it rose: 94%
Typical return +38.0%, usual range +12% to +76%, limited history.How often it rose: 95%
Typical return +25.6%, usual range −11% to +70%.How often it rose: 83%
Typical return +14.3%, usual range −20% to +75%, limited history.How often it rose: 72%
1 month to 1 year, by market regime
| Regime | 1 month | 2 months | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | +4.1%64%53 | +7.4%70%38 | +8.6%73%27 | +21.4%91%18 | +41.7%94%10, limited history |
| Mildly On | +3.4%68%89 | +6.0%67%53 | +9.7%77%40 | +19.8%92%24 | +38.0%95%14, limited history |
| Neutral | +2.2%62%138 | +4.4%66%81 | +7.3%72%57 | +13.3%78%33 | +25.6%83%17 |
| Mildly Off Today | +0.7%54%82 | +2.8%61%52 | +5.0%63%39 | +9.9%61%22 | +14.3%72%13, limited history |
| Risk-Off | +4.9%65%26 | +5.9%73%18 | +5.6%67%14, limited history | +16.2%72%11, limited history | too little history: 8 past 12-month periods |
| All regimesbaseline | +2.5%62%213 | +4.8%66%107 | +7.3%71%72 | +15.4%78%36 | +30.4%84%18 |
Figures in italics have limited history (10 to 14 past periods); a dash means too little history.
Versus the market
AAPL's typical 3-month return moves 1.1 times as much as the S&P 500's from one regime to another (AAPL +5.0% to +9.7%, S&P 500 +1.7% to +6.0%).
Today's reading: 24th percentile (0 most Risk-Off, 100 most Risk-On), as of Sep 25, 2026.
Mildly Off has been AAPL's weakest regime, as it has been for the market. That is today's regime. AAPL's returns from Risk-Off have sat close to its typical return across all markets: no clear bounce and no clear penalty.
Peers
| Stock | Risk-On | Mildly On | Neutral | Today Mildly Off | Risk-Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL Apple | +8.6% | +9.7% | +7.3% | +5.0% | +5.6%, limited history |
| MSFT Microsoft | +6.3% | +5.9% | +5.8% | +4.1% | +4.8%, limited history |
| GOOGL Alphabet | +7.5% | +8.5% | +5.7% | +1.7% | +8.1%, limited history |
| AMZN Amazon | +1.2% | +6.1% | +10.5% | +6.4% | +7.7%, limited history |
| META Meta Platforms | +5.8% | +6.4% | +7.8% | +3.1% | +8.3%, limited history |
| NVDA NVIDIA | +7.3% | +12.0% | +11.3% | +5.3% | +18.6%, limited history |
| Technology sector average 38 stocks | +6.9% | +6.6% | +6.6% | +2.4% | +9.3% |
Sector average: the mean of the Technology stocks with enough history in that regime (at least 3), refreshed after each close.
How to read this
Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what AAPL did after past days in each market regime. They are not forecasts: any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from the last two decades may not hold in the years ahead.
The numbers. The typical return is the median: the middle outcome, with half of past periods better and half worse. The usual range holds 8 in 10 of them, from the 10th to the 90th percentile. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, shown as a dash. AAPL history from January 3, 2006, data through September 25, 2026.
About the same. The sentence under the title sets AAPL's typical return in today's regime against its typical return across all markets; figures within half a point, or within a tenth of the larger one, count as about the same. Versus the market sets how far its typical return moves across regimes against the S&P 500's move, which says nothing about better or worse overall.
Single stocks. For one stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; its own trend dominates. Use it as context, not a reason to act. Why the mild-stress Dead Zone has been the weakest place to be.