Regime Card← Returns by RegimeBroadcom (AVGO) returns by market regime
How AVGO has historically performed from each regime band. Base rates, not forecasts.
The market is NEUTRAL today (39.4 percentile, as of September 4, 2026). From here, AVGO has historically returned a median +10.5% over 3 months, positive 76% of the time, across 53 independent windows.
A median +7.0% over 3 months, positive 69% of the time: that is AVGO in Mildly-Off, its weakest band and the market's too, against +9.4% across all regimes. Like the market, AVGO has historically bounced from Risk-Off: a median +13.4% over 3 months, positive 73% of the time (13 windows, thin). Regime has been a moderate input for AVGO: 6.4 points separate Mildly-Off from Risk-Off, against 4.2 for SPY, with the stock's own trend doing most of the work.
3-month forward return by regime
Each band shows where 80% of AVGO's outcomes landed, low to high, with a tick at the typical return. Red where returns were negative, green where positive, deeper with size; the line marks zero. Bands with under 10 independent windows are hidden. Historical base rates, not a forecast.
All horizons
| Regime | 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RISK-ON | +2.0%61% positive46 windows | +4.2%68% positive34 windows | +7.5%70% positive24 windows | +19.5%93% positive16 windows | insufficient (9) |
| MILDLY ON | +3.2%68% positive82 windows | +5.2%69% positive49 windows | +9.3%78% positive37 windows | +21.8%86% positive22 windows | +54.3%93% positive13 windows · thin |
| NEUTRAL ● here | +3.4%66% positive131 windows | +7.0%74% positive76 windows | +10.5%76% positive53 windows | +22.6%84% positive31 windows | +43.4%89% positive16 windows |
| MILDLY OFF | +1.0%55% positive78 windows | +5.8%63% positive49 windows | +7.0%69% positive37 windows | +10.6%72% positive21 windows | +26.1%91% positive12 windows · thin |
| RISK-OFF | +6.2%76% positive24 windows | +9.0%76% positive17 windows | +13.4%73% positive13 windows · thin | +20.9%88% positive10 windows · thin | insufficient (7) |
| All regimes | +3.0%64% positive199 windows | +6.0%70% positive100 windows | +9.4%74% positive68 windows | +19.2%83% positive34 windows | +42.3%92% positive17 windows |
Median forward return, share of positive outcomes, and the count of independent (non-overlapping) windows. Fewer than 10 reads as insufficient; 10 to 14 is marked thin. AVGO history from August 6, 2009, data through September 4, 2026. Historical base rates, not a forecast.
How to read this
Every trading day the market regime sits in one of five bands, from Risk-Off to Risk-On. This page asks one question about AVGO: historically, when the market was in each band, what did AVGO do next? These are descriptions of what has happened, not predictions of what will. A median is a typical past outcome, and any single instance can land far from it.
For an individual stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; the stock's own trend dominates. Treat this as context among many inputs, not a reason to act. Method and market-level base rates are on Returns by Regime; the bigger picture is in the Dead Zone.
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