State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLC) returns by market regime
In past Mildly Off markets, XLC's typical 3-month return was −2.6%, rising 41% of the time, below its +4.5% across all markets.
Shorter history: XLC's prices start in 2018, so the longer time frames need more past periods to fill in.
XLC: typical return and usual range
Tick: typical return · Bar ends: usual range · Dashed line: 0% · Arrow: runs past the edge
Typical return +1.0%, usual range −3% to +6%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +2.6%, usual range −2% to +7%.How often it rose: 77%
Typical return +1.9%, usual range −5% to +7%.How often it rose: 66%
Typical return −1.6%, usual range −10% to +6%.How often it rose: 37%
Typical return +3.3%, usual range −6% to +13%, limited history.How often it rose: 78%
Typical return +3.0%, usual range −5% to +10%.How often it rose: 72%
Typical return +4.3%, usual range −3% to +10%.How often it rose: 82%
Typical return +3.9%, usual range −6% to +11%.How often it rose: 70%
Typical return −2.7%, usual range −14% to +8%.How often it rose: 38%
Typical return +3.6%, usual range −7% to +20%, limited history.How often it rose: 64%
Typical return +5.7%, usual range −5% to +13%, limited history.How often it rose: 75%
Typical return +5.3%, usual range −2% to +13%.How often it rose: 85%
Typical return +5.1%, usual range −10% to +15%.How often it rose: 67%
Typical return −2.6%, usual range −16% to +14%.How often it rose: 41%
Typical return +10.2%, usual range −2% to +23%, limited history.How often it rose: 88%
Typical return +7.6%, usual range −17% to +23%.How often it rose: 69%
Typical return +3.4%, usual range −22% to +24%, limited history.How often it rose: 54%
Know when the regime changes
XLC's typical 3-month return in past Mildly Off markets was −2.6%. Get an email the day the regime changes, and today's reading right away.
XLC: 1 month to 1 year, by market regime
| Regime | 1 month | 2 months | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | +1.0%60%26 | +3.0%72%17 | +5.7%75%11, limited history | too little history: 7 past 6-month periods | too little history: 4 past 12-month periods |
| Mildly On | +2.6%77%43 | +4.3%82%25 | +5.3%85%19 | +10.2%88%11, limited history | too little history: 6 past 12-month periods |
| Neutral | +1.9%66%61 | +3.9%70%36 | +5.1%67%24 | +7.6%69%15 | too little history: 7 past 12-month periods |
| Mildly Off Today | −1.6%37%34 | −2.7%38%21 | −2.6%41%15 | +3.4%54%11, limited history | too little history: 5 past 12-month periods |
| Risk-Off | +3.3%78%13, limited history | +3.6%64%10, limited history | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods | too little history: 6 past 6-month periods | too little history: 4 past 12-month periods |
| All regimesbaseline | +1.5%63%97 | +3.1%66%48 | +4.5%67%33 | +9.3%72%16 | too little history: 8 past 12-month periods |
Figures in italics have limited history (10 to 14 past periods); a dash means too little history.
XLC: Communication stocks
| Stock | Risk-On | Mildly On | Neutral | Today Mildly Off | Risk-Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLC State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF | +5.7%, limited history | +5.3% | +5.1% | −2.6% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| NFLX Netflix | +5.0% | +10.5% | +14.7% | +9.2% | +15.4%, limited history |
| TKO TKO Group | +8.3% | +8.9% | +2.5% | +4.4% | +9.8%, limited history |
| TMUS T-Mobile US | +4.2% | +5.5% | +5.0% | +3.9% | +4.4%, limited history |
| T AT&T | +1.2% | +2.1% | +2.8% | +3.3% | +5.2%, limited history |
| CHTR Charter Communications | +6.4% | +4.2% | +4.9% | +3.2% | +12.0%, limited history |
| META Meta Platforms | +5.8% | +6.8% | +7.8% | +3.1% | +8.3%, limited history |
| TTWO Take-Two Interactive | +6.4% | +6.5% | +9.1% | +3.1% | +3.4%, limited history |
| LYV Live Nation | +11.6% | +5.7% | +7.2% | +2.6% | +1.1%, limited history |
| CMCSA Comcast | +5.1% | +3.0% | +3.9% | +2.0% | +5.6%, limited history |
| OMC Omnicom Group | +4.0% | +2.1% | +2.1% | +1.8% | +3.7%, limited history |
| GOOGL Alphabet | +7.5% | +8.2% | +5.7% | +1.7% | +8.1%, limited history |
| VZ Verizon | +1.9% | +1.3% | +1.8% | +1.5% | +4.1%, limited history |
| DIS Disney | +5.7% | +4.6% | +2.8% | +1.4% | +6.2%, limited history |
| PINS Pinterest | −0.5%, limited history | −2.9% | −1.9% | −0.4%, limited history | too little history: 7 past 3-month periods |
| ROKU Roku | +11.9%, limited history | +7.8% | +9.3% | −1.2% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| NWSA News Corp | +6.1% | +2.4% | +1.0% | −1.3% | +5.2%, limited history |
| BIDU Baidu | +5.0% | +3.8% | +0.3% | −1.9% | +1.7%, limited history |
| AMC AMC Entertainment | −0.7% | −8.6% | −10.8% | −3.2% | +3.7%, limited history |
| ECHO EchoStar | +4.6% | +4.0% | +2.8% | −3.5% | −4.4%, limited history |
| FOXA Fox Corporation | +8.5%, limited history | +4.0% | +1.4% | −4.0%, limited history | too little history: 7 past 3-month periods |
| SPOT Spotify | −2.3%, limited history | +8.9% | +7.5% | −5.0% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| SNAP Snap | −0.5%, limited history | +0.8% | −0.3% | −9.4% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| APP AppLovin | too little history: 5 past 3-month periods | +24.2%, limited history | +19.4% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods | too little history: 4 past 3-month periods |
| RBLX Roblox | too little history: 6 past 3-month periods | −10.0%, limited history | +9.1% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods | too little history: 4 past 3-month periods |
XLC versus the market
XLC's typical 3-month return moves 2.0 times as much as the S&P 500's from one regime to another (XLC −2.6% to +5.7%, S&P 500 +1.7% to +6.0%).
Today's reading: 17th percentile (0 most Risk-Off, 100 most Risk-On), as of Friday's close, Oct 16.
Like the market, XLC has done worst from Mildly Off. That is today's regime. Risk-Off has too little history for XLC to say whether it shared the market's bounce.
How to read this
Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what XLC did after past days in each market regime. They are not forecasts: any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from the last two decades may not hold in the years ahead.
The numbers. The typical return is the median: the middle outcome, with half of past periods better and half worse. The usual range holds 8 in 10 of them, from the 10th to the 90th percentile. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, shown as a dash. XLC history from June 19, 2018, data through October 16, 2026.
About the same. The sentence under the title sets XLC's typical return in today's regime against its typical return across all markets; figures within half a point, or within a tenth of the larger one, count as about the same. The section on XLC versus the market sets how far its typical return moves across regimes against the S&P 500's move, which says nothing about better or worse overall.
Sector funds. A sector ETF holds the large US stocks of one sector, so its figures describe the sector, not one company, and they are the sector figures on this site. The regime is context, not a reason to act. Why the mild-stress Dead Zone has been the weakest place to be.