Regime Card← Returns by RegimeMeta Platforms (META) returns by market regime
How META has historically performed from each regime band. Base rates, not forecasts.
The market is NEUTRAL today (39.4 percentile, as of September 4, 2026). From here, META has historically returned a median +7.8% over 3 months, positive 70% of the time, across 44 independent windows.
A median +3.1% over 3 months, positive 58% of the time: that is META in Mildly-Off, its weakest band and the market's too, against +6.0% across all regimes. Like the market, META has historically bounced from Risk-Off: a median +8.3% over 3 months, positive 73% of the time (12 windows, thin). Regime has been a moderate input for META: 5.2 points separate Mildly-Off from Risk-Off, against 4.2 for SPY, with the stock's own trend doing most of the work.
3-month forward return by regime
Each band shows where 80% of META's outcomes landed, low to high, with a tick at the typical return. Red where returns were negative, green where positive, deeper with size; the line marks zero. Bands with under 10 independent windows are hidden. Historical base rates, not a forecast.
All horizons
| Regime | 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RISK-ON | +1.4%55% positive43 windows | +3.0%60% positive31 windows | +5.3%62% positive21 windows | +15.2%80% positive14 windows · thin | insufficient (8) |
| MILDLY ON | +3.7%69% positive68 windows | +4.9%69% positive41 windows | +6.3%68% positive31 windows | +13.4%80% positive18 windows | +35.5%82% positive10 windows · thin |
| NEUTRAL ● here | +3.0%65% positive109 windows | +5.9%71% positive63 windows | +7.8%70% positive44 windows | +14.1%77% positive26 windows | +30.0%76% positive13 windows · thin |
| MILDLY OFF | −0.9%48% positive67 windows | −1.5%45% positive42 windows | +3.1%58% positive31 windows | +8.0%69% positive18 windows | +26.0%77% positive10 windows · thin |
| RISK-OFF | +4.2%68% positive21 windows | +6.8%74% positive15 windows | +8.3%73% positive12 windows · thin | insufficient (9) | insufficient (6) |
| All regimes | +2.4%61% positive166 windows | +4.1%64% positive84 windows | +6.0%66% positive56 windows | +13.2%76% positive28 windows | +31.6%80% positive14 windows · thin |
Median forward return, share of positive outcomes, and the count of independent (non-overlapping) windows. Fewer than 10 reads as insufficient; 10 to 14 is marked thin. META history from May 18, 2012, data through September 4, 2026. Historical base rates, not a forecast.
How to read this
Every trading day the market regime sits in one of five bands, from Risk-Off to Risk-On. This page asks one question about META: historically, when the market was in each band, what did META do next? These are descriptions of what has happened, not predictions of what will. A median is a typical past outcome, and any single instance can land far from it.
For an individual stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; the stock's own trend dominates. Treat this as context among many inputs, not a reason to act. Method and market-level base rates are on Returns by Regime; the bigger picture is in the Dead Zone.
More stocks
All 50 stocks · Check any other ticker on Returns by Regime.