Regime Card← Returns by RegimeTesla (TSLA) returns by market regime
How TSLA has historically performed from each regime band. Base rates, not forecasts.
The market is NEUTRAL today (39.4 percentile, as of September 4, 2026). From here, TSLA has historically returned a median +5.8% over 3 months, positive 60% of the time, across 51 independent windows.
TSLA's weakest band has been Mildly-Off: a median −1.2% over 3 months, positive 46% of the time, against +5.1% across all regimes. The market's weakest band is the same one. Like the market, TSLA has historically bounced from Risk-Off: a median +9.9% over 3 months, positive 61% of the time (13 windows, thin). Regime has mattered more for TSLA than for the market: 17.6 points separate Mildly-Off from Risk-On, against 4.2 for SPY. Its own trend still dominates any single window.
3-month forward return by regime
Each band shows where 80% of TSLA's outcomes landed, low to high, with a tick at the typical return. Red where returns were negative, green where positive, deeper with size; the line marks zero. Bands with under 10 independent windows are hidden. Historical base rates, not a forecast.
All horizons
| Regime | 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RISK-ON | +5.3%60% positive43 windows | +6.0%64% positive31 windows | +16.4%66% positive21 windows | +39.2%74% positive14 windows · thin | insufficient (8) |
| MILDLY ON | +1.7%55% positive74 windows | +4.1%55% positive44 windows | +7.9%59% positive34 windows | +20.9%69% positive20 windows | +54.4%86% positive12 windows · thin |
| NEUTRAL ● here | +2.4%56% positive126 windows | +6.3%60% positive73 windows | +5.8%60% positive51 windows | +12.5%63% positive30 windows | +23.1%73% positive15 windows |
| MILDLY OFF | −0.5%49% positive77 windows | −2.1%44% positive48 windows | −1.2%46% positive36 windows | +1.7%52% positive21 windows | −0.7%50% positive12 windows · thin |
| RISK-OFF | +4.4%58% positive24 windows | +5.6%57% positive17 windows | +9.9%61% positive13 windows · thin | +17.5%57% positive10 windows · thin | insufficient (7) |
| All regimes | +1.8%55% positive188 windows | +3.5%56% positive95 windows | +5.1%57% positive64 windows | +11.6%62% positive32 windows | +22.4%71% positive16 windows |
Median forward return, share of positive outcomes, and the count of independent (non-overlapping) windows. Fewer than 10 reads as insufficient; 10 to 14 is marked thin. TSLA history from June 29, 2010, data through September 4, 2026. Historical base rates, not a forecast.
How to read this
Every trading day the market regime sits in one of five bands, from Risk-Off to Risk-On. This page asks one question about TSLA: historically, when the market was in each band, what did TSLA do next? These are descriptions of what has happened, not predictions of what will. A median is a typical past outcome, and any single instance can land far from it.
For an individual stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; the stock's own trend dominates. Treat this as context among many inputs, not a reason to act. Method and market-level base rates are on Returns by Regime; the bigger picture is in the Dead Zone.
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All 50 stocks · Check any other ticker on Returns by Regime.