Etsy (ETSY) returns by market regime
In past Mildly Off markets, ETSY's typical 3-month return was +6.3%, rising 58% of the time, above its +3.8% across all markets.
ETSY: typical return and usual range
Tick: typical return · Bar ends: usual range · Dashed line: 0% · Arrow: runs past the edge
Typical return +5.6%, usual range −12% to +24%.How often it rose: 61%
Typical return +0.4%, usual range −16% to +19%.How often it rose: 52%
Typical return −0.5%, usual range −19% to +22%.How often it rose: 49%
Typical return +1.4%, usual range −23% to +30%.How often it rose: 54%
Typical return +3.6%, usual range −19% to +37%.How often it rose: 57%
Typical return +5.6%, usual range −12% to +37%.How often it rose: 66%
Typical return −3.6%, usual range −20% to +27%.How often it rose: 41%
Typical return +2.9%, usual range −23% to +31%.How often it rose: 54%
Typical return +3.1%, usual range −29% to +39%.How often it rose: 56%
Typical return +12.1%, usual range −33% to +53%, limited history.How often it rose: 65%
Typical return +3.5%, usual range −19% to +37%.How often it rose: 54%
Typical return −4.0%, usual range −21% to +41%.How often it rose: 43%
Typical return +4.7%, usual range −26% to +45%.How often it rose: 56%
Typical return +6.3%, usual range −37% to +51%.How often it rose: 58%
Typical return +21.5%, usual range −38% to +51%, limited history.How often it rose: 64%
Typical return +10.4%, usual range −19% to +97%, limited history.How often it rose: 64%
Typical return +2.3%, usual range −28% to +85%, limited history.How often it rose: 52%
Typical return +1.5%, usual range −40% to +74%.How often it rose: 51%
Typical return +12.0%, usual range −40% to +80%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +1.8%, usual range −52% to +171%, limited history.How often it rose: 51%
Know when the regime changes
ETSY's typical 3-month return in past Mildly Off markets was +6.3%. Get an email the day the regime changes, and today's reading right away.
ETSY: 1 month to 1 year, by market regime
| Regime | 1 month | 2 months | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | +5.6%61%35 | +5.6%66%25 | +3.5%54%17 | +10.4%64%11, limited history | too little history: 7 past 12-month periods |
| Mildly On | +0.4%52%55 | −3.6%41%32 | −4.0%43%25 | +2.3%52%14, limited history | too little history: 8 past 12-month periods |
| Neutral | −0.5%49%85 | +2.9%54%50 | +4.7%56%34 | +1.5%51%21 | +1.8%51%11, limited history |
| Mildly Off Today | +1.4%54%54 | +3.1%56%33 | +6.3%58%24 | +12.0%60%16 | too little history: 8 past 12-month periods |
| Risk-Off | +3.6%57%18 | +12.1%65%13, limited history | +21.5%64%10, limited history | too little history: 8 past 6-month periods | too little history: 5 past 12-month periods |
| All regimesbaseline | +0.9%53%134 | +2.8%54%67 | +3.8%54%45 | +6.3%56%22 | +13.9%59%11, limited history |
Figures in italics have limited history (10 to 14 past periods); a dash means too little history.
ETSY: Consumer Discretionary stocks
| Stock | Risk-On | Mildly On | Neutral | Today Mildly Off | Risk-Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector ETF (XLY) Consumer Discretionary | +4.9% | +4.1% | +5.1% | +2.2% | +6.9%, limited history |
| CROX Crocs | +7.5% | +10.0% | +6.7% | +9.8% | −0.5%, limited history |
| ORLY O'Reilly Automotive | +2.9% | +4.5% | +5.8% | +7.3% | +13.8%, limited history |
| LULU Lululemon | −4.6% | +5.0% | +9.8% | +7.0% | +5.0%, limited history |
| ULTA Ulta Beauty | +7.3% | +8.2% | +7.2% | +6.9% | +11.0%, limited history |
| AMZN Amazon | +1.2% | +6.0% | +10.5% | +6.4% | +7.7%, limited history |
| ETSY Etsy | +3.5% | −4.0% | +4.7% | +6.3% | +21.5%, limited history |
| ROST Ross Stores | +7.1% | +7.7% | +5.4% | +6.0% | +9.8%, limited history |
| AZO AutoZone | +0.2% | +4.9% | +6.4% | +5.7% | +8.4%, limited history |
| SBUX Starbucks | +6.7% | +5.4% | +3.6% | +5.5% | +11.6%, limited history |
| TJX TJX Companies | +4.3% | +6.9% | +5.4% | +5.4% | +7.7%, limited history |
| DPZ Domino's | +3.3% | +5.2% | +9.2% | +5.1% | +6.7%, limited history |
| EXPE Expedia | +12.1% | +4.1% | +5.7% | +5.1% | +2.1%, limited history |
| YUM Yum! Brands | +2.1% | +3.9% | +3.3% | +4.4% | +7.8%, limited history |
| APTV Aptiv | +4.1% | +3.0% | +3.3% | +4.3% | +15.6%, limited history |
| TSCO Tractor Supply | +6.3% | +6.8% | +6.4% | +4.2% | +7.0%, limited history |
| CVNA Carvana | +4.2%, limited history | +20.5% | +17.5% | +3.9% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| NKE Nike | +0.2% | +0.5% | +1.4% | +3.7% | +8.3%, limited history |
| MCD McDonald's | +5.1% | +2.1% | +2.4% | +3.6% | +7.2%, limited history |
| RCL Royal Caribbean | +13.7% | +7.0% | +8.1% | +3.6% | +7.1%, limited history |
| CMG Chipotle | +4.3% | +7.5% | +6.2% | +3.5% | +7.6%, limited history |
| HD Home Depot | +5.8% | +4.6% | +5.8% | +3.2% | +12.4%, limited history |
| GRMN Garmin | +7.9% | +6.8% | +4.0% | +3.0% | +6.4%, limited history |
| PHM PulteGroup | +2.5% | +3.2% | +5.7% | +3.0% | +7.4%, limited history |
| DECK Deckers Brands | +4.2% | +10.7% | +8.1% | +2.7% | +9.3%, limited history |
| DHI D.R. Horton | +5.1% | +1.6% | +4.8% | +2.7% | +12.3%, limited history |
| DRI Darden Restaurants | +6.3% | +3.3% | +4.9% | +2.7% | +4.7%, limited history |
| NVR NVR | +7.0% | +4.8% | +4.5% | +2.6% | +6.0%, limited history |
| GPC Genuine Parts | +4.9% | +2.2% | +2.2% | +2.5% | +11.1%, limited history |
| RL Ralph Lauren | +4.9% | +4.4% | +4.3% | +2.2% | +2.0%, limited history |
| HLT Hilton | +6.9% | +6.5% | +5.8% | +2.0% | +7.7%, limited history |
| BABA Alibaba | +1.0% | +1.0% | −5.1% | +1.8% | +12.5%, limited history |
| LVS Las Vegas Sands | +2.8% | +3.5% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +4.7%, limited history |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | +7.2% | +4.9% | +7.1% | +1.6% | +4.9%, limited history |
| LOW Lowe's | +6.0% | +3.8% | +5.9% | +1.3% | +11.9%, limited history |
| EBAY eBay | +6.5% | +4.1% | +4.1% | +0.7% | +4.1%, limited history |
| GM General Motors | +6.9% | +6.2% | −0.3% | +0.6% | +7.6%, limited history |
| MAR Marriott | +7.3% | +8.1% | +5.9% | +0.6% | +5.3%, limited history |
| NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line | +7.5% | +0.8% | +1.1% | +0.4% | +8.0%, limited history |
| LEN Lennar | +6.2% | +1.8% | +5.0% | +0.2% | +9.9%, limited history |
| BBY Best Buy | +10.6% | +6.0% | −1.1% | 0.0% | +6.7%, limited history |
| TOL Toll Brothers | +7.2% | +3.6% | +4.5% | −0.1% | +6.3%, limited history |
| GME GameStop | 0.0% | −2.7% | −3.2% | −0.6% | −1.9%, limited history |
| CCL Carnival | +4.0% | +1.7% | +2.3% | −1.0% | +1.4%, limited history |
| WSM Williams-Sonoma | +8.4% | +9.3% | +6.1% | −1.0% | +8.0%, limited history |
| MGM MGM Resorts | +8.0% | +3.7% | +3.5% | −1.2% | +7.7%, limited history |
| TSLA Tesla | +15.9% | +6.7% | +5.8% | −1.2% | +9.9%, limited history |
| DKNG DraftKings | +2.0%, limited history | −0.8% | +12.0% | −1.3%, limited history | too little history: 6 past 3-month periods |
| HAS Hasbro | +5.0% | +7.0% | +3.2% | −1.6% | −2.0%, limited history |
| F Ford | +5.2% | +6.4% | +2.0% | −2.9% | +5.4%, limited history |
| WYNN Wynn Resorts | +3.9% | +4.8% | +3.9% | −3.4% | +0.6%, limited history |
| TPR Tapestry | +9.0% | +4.4% | +1.5% | −4.6% | +6.1%, limited history |
| NIO NIO | −3.1%, limited history | −6.2% | −13.9% | −12.4%, limited history | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| ABNB Airbnb | too little history: 7 past 3-month periods | +0.4%, limited history | +3.8% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods | too little history: 4 past 3-month periods |
| DASH DoorDash | too little history: 7 past 3-month periods | +4.0%, limited history | +15.6% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods | too little history: 4 past 3-month periods |
| RIVN Rivian | too little history: 5 past 3-month periods | −0.5%, limited history | −4.6%, limited history | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods | too little history: 4 past 3-month periods |
Sector ETF: XLY's own typical return, the figure on its page.
ETSY versus the market
ETSY's typical 3-month return moves 6.1 times as much as the S&P 500's from one regime to another (ETSY −4.0% to +21.5%, S&P 500 +1.7% to +6.0%).
Today's reading: 17th percentile (0 most Risk-Off, 100 most Risk-On), as of Friday's close, Oct 16.
Unlike the market, ETSY's weakest regime has been Mildly On, not Mildly Off. ETSY has historically shared the market's bounce from Risk-Off.
How to read this
Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what ETSY did after past days in each market regime. They are not forecasts: any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from the last two decades may not hold in the years ahead.
The numbers. The typical return is the median: the middle outcome, with half of past periods better and half worse. The usual range holds 8 in 10 of them, from the 10th to the 90th percentile. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, shown as a dash. ETSY history from April 16, 2015, data through October 16, 2026.
About the same. The sentence under the title sets ETSY's typical return in today's regime against its typical return across all markets; figures within half a point, or within a tenth of the larger one, count as about the same. The section on ETSY versus the market sets how far its typical return moves across regimes against the S&P 500's move, which says nothing about better or worse overall.
Single stocks. For one stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; its own trend dominates. Use it as context, not a reason to act. Why the mild-stress Dead Zone has been the weakest place to be.