Mondelez (MDLZ) returns by market regime
In past Mildly Off markets, MDLZ's typical 3-month return was +2.7%, rising 65% of the time, about the same as its +2.5% across all markets.
MDLZ: typical return and usual range
Tick: typical return · Bar ends: usual range · Dashed line: 0% · Arrow: runs past the edge
Typical return +0.9%, usual range −6% to +8%.How often it rose: 59%
Typical return +0.8%, usual range −5% to +7%.How often it rose: 58%
Typical return +0.6%, usual range −5% to +7%.How often it rose: 55%
Typical return +1.6%, usual range −6% to +8%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +1.6%, usual range −7% to +12%.How often it rose: 63%
Typical return +1.3%, usual range −8% to +12%.How often it rose: 54%
Typical return +1.5%, usual range −7% to +9%.How often it rose: 57%
Typical return +1.9%, usual range −7% to +10%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +1.9%, usual range −7% to +11%.How often it rose: 62%
Typical return +2.0%, usual range −6% to +13%.How often it rose: 67%
Typical return +2.9%, usual range −8% to +15%.How often it rose: 65%
Typical return +1.7%, usual range −8% to +12%.How often it rose: 59%
Typical return +2.4%, usual range −8% to +12%.How often it rose: 62%
Typical return +2.7%, usual range −7% to +11%.How often it rose: 65%
Typical return +4.1%, usual range −6% to +16%, limited history.How often it rose: 72%
Typical return +6.9%, usual range −8% to +18%.How often it rose: 71%
Typical return +4.2%, usual range −6% to +14%.How often it rose: 69%
Typical return +5.4%, usual range −6% to +15%.How often it rose: 73%
Typical return +4.6%, usual range −6% to +19%.How often it rose: 71%
Typical return +9.5%, usual range −8% to +25%, limited history.How often it rose: 72%
Typical return +9.4%, usual range −6% to +32%, limited history.How often it rose: 77%
Typical return +8.7%, usual range −8% to +24%, limited history.How often it rose: 73%
Typical return +9.4%, usual range −6% to +26%.How often it rose: 76%
Typical return +12.8%, usual range −3% to +29%, limited history.How often it rose: 84%
Know when the regime changes
MDLZ's typical 3-month return in past Mildly Off markets was +2.7%. Get an email the day the regime changes, and today's reading right away.
MDLZ: 1 month to 1 year, by market regime
| Regime | 1 month | 2 months | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | +0.9%59%53 | +1.3%54%38 | +2.9%65%27 | +6.9%71%18 | +9.4%77%10, limited history |
| Mildly On | +0.8%58%90 | +1.5%57%53 | +1.7%59%41 | +4.2%69%24 | +8.7%73%14, limited history |
| Neutral | +0.6%55%138 | +1.9%60%81 | +2.4%62%57 | +5.4%73%33 | +9.4%76%17 |
| Mildly Off Today | +1.6%60%83 | +1.9%62%52 | +2.7%65%39 | +4.6%71%23 | +12.8%84%13, limited history |
| Risk-Off | +1.6%63%26 | +2.0%67%18 | +4.1%72%14, limited history | +9.5%72%11, limited history | too little history: 8 past 12-month periods |
| All regimesbaseline | +0.9%58%213 | +1.8%60%107 | +2.5%63%73 | +5.3%71%36 | +10.2%78%18 |
Figures in italics have limited history (10 to 14 past periods); a dash means too little history.
MDLZ: Consumer Staples stocks
| Stock | Risk-On | Mildly On | Neutral | Today Mildly Off | Risk-Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector ETF (XLP) Consumer Staples | +4.4% | +3.1% | +2.8% | +1.4% | +3.8%, limited history |
| CASY Casey's | +5.9% | +6.0% | +5.3% | +5.3% | +7.2%, limited history |
| DG Dollar General | +3.1% | +5.9% | +3.5% | +4.8% | +11.6%, limited history |
| MNST Monster Beverage | +3.7% | +7.0% | +7.7% | +4.5% | +10.9%, limited history |
| MO Altria | +7.6% | +5.8% | +5.1% | +4.2% | +5.5%, limited history |
| SYY Sysco | +5.6% | +2.5% | +2.2% | +3.4% | +5.2%, limited history |
| MKC McCormick | +0.7% | +2.8% | +3.8% | +3.1% | +4.4%, limited history |
| HRL Hormel Foods | +1.7% | +2.3% | +2.8% | +3.0% | +3.1%, limited history |
| TGT Target | +8.7% | +6.8% | +1.3% | +2.9% | +7.1%, limited history |
| MDLZ Mondelez | +2.9% | +1.7% | +2.4% | +2.7% | +4.1%, limited history |
| CHD Church & Dwight | +2.2% | +2.5% | +4.4% | +2.6% | +1.9%, limited history |
| STZ Constellation Brands | +2.9% | +3.9% | +4.8% | +2.6% | +5.3%, limited history |
| WMT Walmart | +1.7% | +4.8% | +3.0% | +2.4% | +5.3%, limited history |
| CLX Clorox | +1.2% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +2.3% | +1.1%, limited history |
| COST Costco | +4.3% | +4.8% | +6.3% | +2.3% | +4.8%, limited history |
| HSY Hershey | +4.2% | +4.5% | +3.2% | +2.2% | +1.4%, limited history |
| EL Estée Lauder | +9.2% | +5.9% | +4.1% | +2.1% | +12.1%, limited history |
| PM Philip Morris | +7.5% | +3.2% | +2.3% | +2.1% | +4.8%, limited history |
| ADM Archer Daniels Midland | +8.3% | +2.9% | +1.7% | +2.0% | +6.6%, limited history |
| GIS General Mills | −0.3% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.7% | +6.4%, limited history |
| KMB Kimberly-Clark | +2.8% | +2.8% | +2.0% | +1.7% | +2.9%, limited history |
| KO Coca-Cola | +6.7% | +4.4% | +2.1% | +1.5% | +0.8%, limited history |
| PG Procter & Gamble | +3.9% | +2.2% | +2.1% | +1.5% | +2.6%, limited history |
| KDP Keurig Dr Pepper | +6.5% | +6.0% | +3.1% | +1.4% | +3.1%, limited history |
| SJM J.M. Smucker | +5.2% | +0.9% | +1.4% | +1.4% | +4.9%, limited history |
| BF-B Brown-Forman | +3.8% | +2.7% | +2.2% | +1.1% | +5.1%, limited history |
| DLTR Dollar Tree | +0.1% | +4.3% | +5.5% | +1.1% | +11.8%, limited history |
| PEP PepsiCo | +3.9% | +3.7% | +2.0% | +1.1% | +3.5%, limited history |
| KR Kroger | +2.5% | +4.0% | +4.3% | +0.4% | +1.0%, limited history |
| CL Colgate-Palmolive | +5.9% | +4.0% | +2.0% | −0.2% | +3.7%, limited history |
| BG Bunge Global | +11.3% | +2.8% | +3.5% | −2.0% | −1.6%, limited history |
| KHC Kraft Heinz | +1.4% | −1.3% | −2.3% | −2.4% | 0.0%, limited history |
| TSN Tyson Foods | +5.2% | +4.2% | +3.1% | −2.8% | +3.4%, limited history |
| CELH Celsius | +8.4% | +5.7% | −2.7% | −4.5% | +19.0%, limited history |
Sector ETF: XLP's own typical return, the figure on its page.
MDLZ versus the market
MDLZ's typical 3-month return moves 0.6 times as much as the S&P 500's from one regime to another (MDLZ +1.7% to +4.1%, S&P 500 +1.7% to +6.0%).
Today's reading: 17th percentile (0 most Risk-Off, 100 most Risk-On), as of Friday's close, Oct 16.
Unlike the market, MDLZ's weakest regime has been Mildly On, not Mildly Off. MDLZ's returns from Risk-Off have sat close to its typical return across all markets: no clear bounce and no clear penalty.
How to read this
Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what MDLZ did after past days in each market regime. They are not forecasts: any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from the last two decades may not hold in the years ahead.
The numbers. The typical return is the median: the middle outcome, with half of past periods better and half worse. The usual range holds 8 in 10 of them, from the 10th to the 90th percentile. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, shown as a dash. MDLZ history from January 3, 2006, data through October 16, 2026.
About the same. The sentence under the title sets MDLZ's typical return in today's regime against its typical return across all markets; figures within half a point, or within a tenth of the larger one, count as about the same. The section on MDLZ versus the market sets how far its typical return moves across regimes against the S&P 500's move, which says nothing about better or worse overall.
Single stocks. For one stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; its own trend dominates. Use it as context, not a reason to act. Why the mild-stress Dead Zone has been the weakest place to be.