Brown-Forman (BF-B) returns by market regime
In past Mildly Off markets, BF-B's typical 3-month return was +1.1%, rising 56% of the time, below its +2.5% across all markets.
BF-B: typical return and usual range
Tick: typical return · Bar ends: usual range · Dashed line: 0% · Arrow: runs past the edge
Typical return +0.2%, usual range −7% to +9%.How often it rose: 52%
Typical return +0.7%, usual range −7% to +8%.How often it rose: 53%
Typical return +0.6%, usual range −8% to +8%.How often it rose: 55%
Typical return +1.3%, usual range −7% to +8%.How often it rose: 62%
Typical return +3.4%, usual range −6% to +12%.How often it rose: 73%
Typical return +1.0%, usual range −8% to +13%.How often it rose: 53%
Typical return +1.1%, usual range −12% to +11%.How often it rose: 55%
Typical return +1.3%, usual range −10% to +11%.How often it rose: 57%
Typical return +2.2%, usual range −8% to +10%.How often it rose: 62%
Typical return +5.2%, usual range −7% to +14%.How often it rose: 77%
Typical return +3.8%, usual range −14% to +14%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +2.7%, usual range −13% to +14%.How often it rose: 59%
Typical return +2.2%, usual range −11% to +13%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +1.1%, usual range −9% to +11%.How often it rose: 56%
Typical return +5.1%, usual range −7% to +18%, limited history.How often it rose: 77%
Typical return +1.0%, usual range −10% to +22%.How often it rose: 54%
Typical return +3.8%, usual range −19% to +24%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +3.1%, usual range −15% to +23%.How often it rose: 59%
Typical return +2.1%, usual range −12% to +18%.How often it rose: 57%
Typical return +9.9%, usual range −11% to +29%, limited history.How often it rose: 71%
Typical return +12.0%, usual range −23% to +48%, limited history.How often it rose: 63%
Typical return +16.6%, usual range −31% to +36%, limited history.How often it rose: 65%
Typical return +9.8%, usual range −25% to +33%.How often it rose: 65%
Typical return +6.4%, usual range −12% to +32%, limited history.How often it rose: 63%
Know when the regime changes
BF-B's typical 3-month return in past Mildly Off markets was +1.1%. Get an email the day the regime changes, and today's reading right away.
BF-B: 1 month to 1 year, by market regime
| Regime | 1 month | 2 months | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | +0.2%52%53 | +1.0%53%38 | +3.8%60%27 | +1.0%54%18 | +12.0%63%10, limited history |
| Mildly On | +0.7%53%90 | +1.1%55%53 | +2.7%59%41 | +3.8%60%24 | +16.6%65%14, limited history |
| Neutral | +0.6%55%138 | +1.3%57%81 | +2.2%60%57 | +3.1%59%33 | +9.8%65%17 |
| Mildly Off Today | +1.3%62%83 | +2.2%62%52 | +1.1%56%39 | +2.1%57%23 | +6.4%63%13, limited history |
| Risk-Off | +3.4%73%26 | +5.2%77%18 | +5.1%77%14, limited history | +9.9%71%11, limited history | too little history: 8 past 12-month periods |
| All regimesbaseline | +1.0%57%213 | +1.7%59%107 | +2.5%60%73 | +3.3%59%36 | +9.8%64%18 |
Figures in italics have limited history (10 to 14 past periods); a dash means too little history.
BF-B: Consumer Staples stocks
| Stock | Risk-On | Mildly On | Neutral | Today Mildly Off | Risk-Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector ETF (XLP) Consumer Staples | +4.4% | +3.1% | +2.8% | +1.4% | +3.8%, limited history |
| CASY Casey's | +5.9% | +6.0% | +5.3% | +5.3% | +7.2%, limited history |
| DG Dollar General | +3.1% | +5.9% | +3.5% | +4.8% | +11.6%, limited history |
| MNST Monster Beverage | +3.7% | +7.0% | +7.7% | +4.5% | +10.9%, limited history |
| MO Altria | +7.6% | +5.8% | +5.1% | +4.2% | +5.5%, limited history |
| SYY Sysco | +5.6% | +2.5% | +2.2% | +3.4% | +5.2%, limited history |
| MKC McCormick | +0.7% | +2.8% | +3.8% | +3.1% | +4.4%, limited history |
| HRL Hormel Foods | +1.7% | +2.3% | +2.8% | +3.0% | +3.1%, limited history |
| TGT Target | +8.7% | +6.8% | +1.3% | +2.9% | +7.1%, limited history |
| MDLZ Mondelez | +2.9% | +1.7% | +2.4% | +2.7% | +4.1%, limited history |
| CHD Church & Dwight | +2.2% | +2.5% | +4.4% | +2.6% | +1.9%, limited history |
| STZ Constellation Brands | +2.9% | +3.9% | +4.8% | +2.6% | +5.3%, limited history |
| WMT Walmart | +1.7% | +4.8% | +3.0% | +2.4% | +5.3%, limited history |
| CLX Clorox | +1.2% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +2.3% | +1.1%, limited history |
| COST Costco | +4.3% | +4.8% | +6.3% | +2.3% | +4.8%, limited history |
| HSY Hershey | +4.2% | +4.5% | +3.2% | +2.2% | +1.4%, limited history |
| EL Estée Lauder | +9.2% | +5.9% | +4.1% | +2.1% | +12.1%, limited history |
| PM Philip Morris | +7.5% | +3.2% | +2.3% | +2.1% | +4.8%, limited history |
| ADM Archer Daniels Midland | +8.3% | +2.9% | +1.7% | +2.0% | +6.6%, limited history |
| GIS General Mills | −0.3% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +1.7% | +6.4%, limited history |
| KMB Kimberly-Clark | +2.8% | +2.8% | +2.0% | +1.7% | +2.9%, limited history |
| KO Coca-Cola | +6.7% | +4.4% | +2.1% | +1.5% | +0.8%, limited history |
| PG Procter & Gamble | +3.9% | +2.2% | +2.1% | +1.5% | +2.6%, limited history |
| KDP Keurig Dr Pepper | +6.5% | +6.0% | +3.1% | +1.4% | +3.1%, limited history |
| SJM J.M. Smucker | +5.2% | +0.9% | +1.4% | +1.4% | +4.9%, limited history |
| BF-B Brown-Forman | +3.8% | +2.7% | +2.2% | +1.1% | +5.1%, limited history |
| DLTR Dollar Tree | +0.1% | +4.3% | +5.5% | +1.1% | +11.8%, limited history |
| PEP PepsiCo | +3.9% | +3.7% | +2.0% | +1.1% | +3.5%, limited history |
| KR Kroger | +2.5% | +4.0% | +4.3% | +0.4% | +1.0%, limited history |
| CL Colgate-Palmolive | +5.9% | +4.0% | +2.0% | −0.2% | +3.7%, limited history |
| BG Bunge Global | +11.3% | +2.8% | +3.5% | −2.0% | −1.6%, limited history |
| KHC Kraft Heinz | +1.4% | −1.3% | −2.3% | −2.4% | 0.0%, limited history |
| TSN Tyson Foods | +5.2% | +4.2% | +3.1% | −2.8% | +3.4%, limited history |
| CELH Celsius | +8.4% | +5.7% | −2.7% | −4.5% | +19.0%, limited history |
Sector ETF: XLP's own typical return, the figure on its page.
BF-B versus the market
BF-B's typical 3-month return moves 0.9 times as much as the S&P 500's from one regime to another (BF-B +1.1% to +5.1%, S&P 500 +1.7% to +6.0%).
Today's reading: 17th percentile (0 most Risk-Off, 100 most Risk-On), as of Friday's close, Oct 16.
Mildly Off has been BF-B's weakest regime, as it has been for the market. That is today's regime. BF-B has historically shared the market's bounce from Risk-Off.
How to read this
Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what BF-B did after past days in each market regime. They are not forecasts: any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from the last two decades may not hold in the years ahead.
The numbers. The typical return is the median: the middle outcome, with half of past periods better and half worse. The usual range holds 8 in 10 of them, from the 10th to the 90th percentile. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, shown as a dash. BF-B history from January 3, 2006, data through October 16, 2026.
About the same. The sentence under the title sets BF-B's typical return in today's regime against its typical return across all markets; figures within half a point, or within a tenth of the larger one, count as about the same. The section on BF-B versus the market sets how far its typical return moves across regimes against the S&P 500's move, which says nothing about better or worse overall.
Single stocks. For one stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; its own trend dominates. Use it as context, not a reason to act. Why the mild-stress Dead Zone has been the weakest place to be.