State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) returns by market regime
In past Mildly Off markets, XLRE's typical 3-month return was +2.1%, rising 61% of the time, about the same as its +2.4% across all markets.
XLRE: typical return and usual range
Tick: typical return · Bar ends: usual range · Dashed line: 0% · Arrow: runs past the edge
Typical return +0.9%, usual range −4% to +5%.How often it rose: 61%
Typical return +1.0%, usual range −3% to +6%.How often it rose: 63%
Typical return +0.6%, usual range −6% to +6%.How often it rose: 56%
Typical return +0.5%, usual range −7% to +7%.How often it rose: 55%
Typical return +3.6%, usual range −7% to +12%.How often it rose: 71%
Typical return +2.6%, usual range −2% to +9%.How often it rose: 76%
Typical return +1.0%, usual range −6% to +8%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +1.6%, usual range −7% to +8%.How often it rose: 62%
Typical return +1.2%, usual range −11% to +8%.How often it rose: 59%
Typical return +4.4%, usual range −7% to +14%, limited history.How often it rose: 75%
Typical return +3.0%, usual range −5% to +14%.How often it rose: 75%
Typical return +0.8%, usual range −7% to +12%.How often it rose: 54%
Typical return +2.3%, usual range −6% to +10%.How often it rose: 66%
Typical return +2.1%, usual range −11% to +8%.How often it rose: 61%
Typical return +8.0%, usual range −4% to +25%, limited history.How often it rose: 80%
Typical return +5.6%, usual range −5% to +16%, limited history.How often it rose: 70%
Typical return +3.1%, usual range −8% to +13%.How often it rose: 64%
Typical return +2.7%, usual range −10% to +12%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +3.2%, usual range −10% to +24%, limited history.How often it rose: 67%
Know when the regime changes
XLRE's typical 3-month return in past Mildly Off markets was +2.1%. Get an email the day the regime changes, and today's reading right away.
XLRE: 1 month to 1 year, by market regime
| Regime | 1 month | 2 months | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | +0.9%61%34 | +2.6%76%24 | +3.0%75%16 | +8.0%80%10, limited history | too little history: 6 past 12-month periods |
| Mildly On | +1.0%63%55 | +1.0%60%32 | +0.8%54%25 | +5.6%70%14, limited history | too little history: 8 past 12-month periods |
| Neutral | +0.6%56%83 | +1.6%62%48 | +2.3%66%33 | +3.1%64%20 | +3.2%67%10, limited history |
| Mildly Off Today | +0.5%55%49 | +1.2%59%30 | +2.1%61%23 | +2.7%60%15 | too little history: 7 past 12-month periods |
| Risk-Off | +3.6%71%15 | +4.4%75%11, limited history | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods | too little history: 7 past 6-month periods | too little history: 5 past 12-month periods |
| All regimesbaseline | +0.8%59%128 | +1.7%64%64 | +2.4%64%44 | +4.3%67%22 | +5.2%70%11, limited history |
Figures in italics have limited history (10 to 14 past periods); a dash means too little history.
XLRE: Real Estate stocks
| Stock | Risk-On | Mildly On | Neutral | Today Mildly Off | Risk-Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLRE State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF | +3.0% | +0.8% | +2.3% | +2.1% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods |
| EQIX Equinix | +4.2% | +3.0% | +5.1% | +6.3% | +9.9%, limited history |
| EXR Extra Space Storage | +7.8% | +6.3% | +5.4% | +5.3% | +7.0%, limited history |
| O Realty Income | +4.5% | +1.8% | +2.5% | +5.1% | +6.0%, limited history |
| WELL Welltower | +9.7% | +6.2% | +4.9% | +4.2% | +2.1%, limited history |
| KIM Kimco Realty | +3.9% | −1.1% | +3.9% | +4.1% | +6.9%, limited history |
| VTR Ventas | +10.0% | +6.2% | +3.0% | +3.8% | −0.6%, limited history |
| SPG Simon Property | +7.2% | +4.7% | +4.5% | +3.6% | +3.8%, limited history |
| UDR UDR | +4.5% | +3.7% | +2.9% | +3.6% | +2.9%, limited history |
| VICI Vici Properties | +7.1%, limited history | +1.5% | −0.5% | +3.5% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| DLR Digital Realty | +4.9% | +5.4% | +3.8% | +3.4% | +7.3%, limited history |
| MAA Mid-America Apartment | +6.7% | +3.5% | +3.5% | +3.4% | +4.4%, limited history |
| FRT Federal Realty | +3.8% | +2.8% | +2.8% | +3.3% | +3.2%, limited history |
| AMT American Tower | +1.2% | +2.4% | +3.7% | +3.1% | +9.0%, limited history |
| PSA Public Storage | +6.5% | +3.0% | +2.9% | +3.0% | +3.7%, limited history |
| CPT Camden Property Trust | +5.9% | +4.1% | +4.1% | +2.8% | +3.1%, limited history |
| PLD Prologis | +5.0% | +4.2% | +4.9% | +2.8% | +9.3%, limited history |
| ESS Essex Property Trust | +4.7% | +4.6% | +3.6% | +2.6% | +2.0%, limited history |
| IRM Iron Mountain | +9.8% | +2.6% | +4.6% | +2.6% | +3.7%, limited history |
| REG Regency Centers | +4.0% | +0.1% | +3.2% | +2.4% | +2.2%, limited history |
| CBRE CBRE Group | +11.9% | +5.4% | +6.4% | +2.3% | +8.5%, limited history |
| DOC Healthpeak Properties | +6.8% | +2.7% | +0.4% | +2.3% | +0.9%, limited history |
| CCI Crown Castle | +1.6% | +1.8% | +3.3% | +2.0% | +4.7%, limited history |
| CSGP CoStar Group | +0.1% | +3.0% | +6.4% | +1.8% | +14.9%, limited history |
| SBAC SBA Communications | +2.9% | +3.1% | +5.5% | +1.7% | +6.1%, limited history |
| BXP BXP | +4.1% | +2.1% | +2.1% | +1.3% | −1.2%, limited history |
| ARE Alexandria Real Estate | +0.4% | +2.3% | +2.5% | +1.1% | +3.9%, limited history |
| HST Host Hotels & Resorts | +5.3% | +2.8% | +2.6% | +0.4% | +3.3%, limited history |
| WY Weyerhaeuser | +2.5% | +1.4% | +3.0% | −0.4% | +3.2%, limited history |
| INVH Invitation Homes | +2.2%, limited history | +2.4% | +2.5% | −1.0% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
XLRE versus the market
XLRE's typical 3-month return moves 0.5 times as much as the S&P 500's from one regime to another (XLRE +0.8% to +3.0%, S&P 500 +1.7% to +6.0%).
Today's reading: 17th percentile (0 most Risk-Off, 100 most Risk-On), as of Friday's close, Oct 16.
Unlike the market, XLRE's weakest regime has been Mildly On, not Mildly Off. Risk-Off has too little history for XLRE to say whether it shared the market's bounce.
How to read this
Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what XLRE did after past days in each market regime. They are not forecasts: any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from the last two decades may not hold in the years ahead.
The numbers. The typical return is the median: the middle outcome, with half of past periods better and half worse. The usual range holds 8 in 10 of them, from the 10th to the 90th percentile. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, shown as a dash. XLRE history from October 8, 2015, data through October 16, 2026.
About the same. The sentence under the title sets XLRE's typical return in today's regime against its typical return across all markets; figures within half a point, or within a tenth of the larger one, count as about the same. The section on XLRE versus the market sets how far its typical return moves across regimes against the S&P 500's move, which says nothing about better or worse overall.
Sector funds. A sector ETF holds the large US stocks of one sector, so its figures describe the sector, not one company, and they are the sector figures on this site. The regime is context, not a reason to act. Why the mild-stress Dead Zone has been the weakest place to be.