State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) returns by market regime
In past Mildly Off markets, XLB's typical 3-month return was +1.0%, rising 57% of the time, below its +3.1% across all markets.
XLB: typical return and usual range
Tick: typical return · Bar ends: usual range · Dashed line: 0% · Arrow: runs past the edge
Typical return +1.0%, usual range −4% to +9%.How often it rose: 62%
Typical return +1.3%, usual range −4% to +7%.How often it rose: 64%
Typical return +0.8%, usual range −6% to +6%.How often it rose: 57%
Typical return +0.8%, usual range −8% to +7%.How often it rose: 56%
Typical return +4.9%, usual range −12% to +13%.How often it rose: 69%
Typical return +2.8%, usual range −3% to +15%.How often it rose: 73%
Typical return +1.8%, usual range −6% to +11%.How often it rose: 64%
Typical return +1.8%, usual range −7% to +9%.How often it rose: 63%
Typical return +1.1%, usual range −10% to +8%.How often it rose: 56%
Typical return +4.2%, usual range −12% to +17%.How often it rose: 71%
Typical return +5.6%, usual range −4% to +17%.How often it rose: 74%
Typical return +3.4%, usual range −6% to +14%.How often it rose: 71%
Typical return +3.3%, usual range −8% to +11%.How often it rose: 65%
Typical return +1.0%, usual range −12% to +10%.How often it rose: 57%
Typical return +5.2%, usual range −9% to +20%, limited history.How often it rose: 72%
Typical return +10.6%, usual range −4% to +33%.How often it rose: 85%
Typical return +7.1%, usual range −4% to +22%.How often it rose: 81%
Typical return +4.8%, usual range −9% to +18%.How often it rose: 73%
Typical return +2.2%, usual range −14% to +13%.How often it rose: 58%
Typical return +9.6%, usual range −11% to +26%, limited history.How often it rose: 73%
Typical return +19.5%, usual range −2% to +50%, limited history.How often it rose: 89%
Typical return +14.0%, usual range −4% to +30%, limited history.How often it rose: 85%
Typical return +10.5%, usual range −9% to +27%.How often it rose: 68%
Typical return +3.4%, usual range −8% to +20%, limited history.How often it rose: 61%
Know when the regime changes
XLB's typical 3-month return in past Mildly Off markets was +1.0%. Get an email the day the regime changes, and today's reading right away.
XLB: 1 month to 1 year, by market regime
| Regime | 1 month | 2 months | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | +1.0%62%53 | +2.8%73%38 | +5.6%74%27 | +10.6%85%18 | +19.5%89%10, limited history |
| Mildly On | +1.3%64%90 | +1.8%64%53 | +3.4%71%41 | +7.1%81%24 | +14.0%85%14, limited history |
| Neutral | +0.8%57%138 | +1.8%63%81 | +3.3%65%57 | +4.8%73%33 | +10.5%68%17 |
| Mildly Off Today | +0.8%56%83 | +1.1%56%52 | +1.0%57%39 | +2.2%58%23 | +3.4%61%13, limited history |
| Risk-Off | +4.9%69%26 | +4.2%71%18 | +5.2%72%14, limited history | +9.6%73%11, limited history | too little history: 8 past 12-month periods |
| All regimesbaseline | +1.1%60%213 | +2.0%63%107 | +3.1%66%73 | +5.6%72%36 | +11.5%73%18 |
Figures in italics have limited history (10 to 14 past periods); a dash means too little history.
XLB: Materials stocks
| Stock | Risk-On | Mildly On | Neutral | Today Mildly Off | Risk-Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLB State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF | +5.6% | +3.4% | +3.3% | +1.0% | +5.2%, limited history |
| CF CF Industries | +7.1% | +4.2% | +5.4% | +4.6% | −1.6%, limited history |
| CTVA Corteva | +10.3%, limited history | +4.7% | +0.9% | +4.4%, limited history | too little history: 7 past 3-month periods |
| STLD Steel Dynamics | +9.3% | +5.1% | +3.0% | +4.4% | +13.4%, limited history |
| VMC Vulcan Materials | −0.9% | +1.2% | +3.7% | +4.2% | +11.1%, limited history |
| MLM Martin Marietta Materials | −0.3% | +1.8% | +3.4% | +3.6% | +10.5%, limited history |
| BALL Ball | +1.3% | +2.3% | +4.1% | +3.5% | +7.2%, limited history |
| NEM Newmont | +4.8% | +2.7% | −1.3% | +3.5% | +6.2%, limited history |
| APD Air Products | +4.6% | +3.2% | +2.8% | +2.7% | +7.7%, limited history |
| CRH CRH | +4.3% | +3.1% | +3.0% | +2.5% | +11.5%, limited history |
| ECL Ecolab | +3.4% | +4.6% | +4.0% | +2.3% | +7.9%, limited history |
| SHW Sherwin-Williams | +6.3% | +4.8% | +5.5% | +2.2% | +11.2%, limited history |
| LYB LyondellBasell | +7.4% | +6.0% | +3.2% | +2.0% | +10.3%, limited history |
| LIN Linde | +2.6% | +3.8% | +4.2% | +1.9% | +5.3%, limited history |
| PKG Packaging Corporation of America | +7.6% | +6.5% | +7.0% | +1.7% | +6.4%, limited history |
| NUE Nucor | +4.0% | +2.9% | +2.7% | +1.3% | +11.3%, limited history |
| AVY Avery Dennison | +7.5% | +5.4% | +3.2% | +1.2% | +9.4%, limited history |
| PPG PPG Industries | +3.1% | +2.7% | +4.4% | +0.7% | +10.8%, limited history |
| FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +11.9% | +5.1% | +0.7% | +0.2% | −1.6%, limited history |
| IP International Paper | +9.5% | +3.0% | +1.6% | 0.0% | +5.4%, limited history |
| AMCR Amcor | +4.8% | +1.3% | 0.0% | −0.2% | +6.1%, limited history |
| MOS Mosaic | 0.0% | −3.3% | 0.0% | −0.2% | −6.0%, limited history |
| ALB Albemarle | +6.9% | +4.9% | +2.4% | −0.3% | +11.2%, limited history |
| IFF International Flavors & Fragrances | +5.7% | +5.2% | +3.9% | −1.2% | +2.2%, limited history |
| SW Smurfit Westrock | +7.7% | +6.8% | +4.7% | −1.3% | +3.7%, limited history |
| DOW Dow | +8.5%, limited history | +1.4% | −3.9% | −3.6%, limited history | too little history: 7 past 3-month periods |
XLB versus the market
XLB's typical 3-month return moves 1.1 times as much as the S&P 500's from one regime to another (XLB +1.0% to +5.6%, S&P 500 +1.7% to +6.0%).
Today's reading: 17th percentile (0 most Risk-Off, 100 most Risk-On), as of Friday's close, Oct 16.
XLB shares the market's weakest regime, Mildly Off. That is today's regime. XLB has historically shared the market's bounce from Risk-Off.
How to read this
Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what XLB did after past days in each market regime. They are not forecasts: any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from the last two decades may not hold in the years ahead.
The numbers. The typical return is the median: the middle outcome, with half of past periods better and half worse. The usual range holds 8 in 10 of them, from the 10th to the 90th percentile. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, shown as a dash. XLB history from January 3, 2006, data through October 16, 2026.
About the same. The sentence under the title sets XLB's typical return in today's regime against its typical return across all markets; figures within half a point, or within a tenth of the larger one, count as about the same. The section on XLB versus the market sets how far its typical return moves across regimes against the S&P 500's move, which says nothing about better or worse overall.
Sector funds. A sector ETF holds the large US stocks of one sector, so its figures describe the sector, not one company, and they are the sector figures on this site. The regime is context, not a reason to act. Why the mild-stress Dead Zone has been the weakest place to be.