Valero Energy (VLO) returns by market regime
In past Mildly Off markets, VLO's typical 3-month return was +5.1%, rising 64% of the time, about the same as its +5.0% across all markets.
VLO: typical return and usual range
Tick: typical return · Bar ends: usual range · Dashed line: 0% · Arrow: runs past the edge
Typical return +1.8%, usual range −11% to +17%.How often it rose: 55%
Typical return +2.0%, usual range −12% to +14%.How often it rose: 59%
Typical return +1.8%, usual range −11% to +15%.How often it rose: 56%
Typical return +1.7%, usual range −12% to +15%.How often it rose: 56%
Typical return +8.1%, usual range −15% to +27%.How often it rose: 72%
Typical return +4.4%, usual range −19% to +27%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +4.1%, usual range −16% to +24%.How often it rose: 61%
Typical return +1.7%, usual range −14% to +22%.How often it rose: 55%
Typical return +3.0%, usual range −16% to +27%.How often it rose: 59%
Typical return +11.1%, usual range −12% to +33%.How often it rose: 78%
Typical return +6.4%, usual range −24% to +37%.How often it rose: 59%
Typical return +2.7%, usual range −16% to +31%.How often it rose: 53%
Typical return +4.2%, usual range −15% to +28%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +5.1%, usual range −17% to +30%.How often it rose: 64%
Typical return +12.5%, usual range −8% to +38%, limited history.How often it rose: 73%
Typical return +6.2%, usual range −21% to +48%.How often it rose: 62%
Typical return +6.6%, usual range −20% to +49%.How often it rose: 63%
Typical return +14.9%, usual range −19% to +50%.How often it rose: 70%
Typical return +8.5%, usual range −25% to +39%.How often it rose: 59%
Typical return +14.2%, usual range −18% to +39%, limited history.How often it rose: 79%
Typical return +30.2%, usual range −24% to +65%, limited history.How often it rose: 75%
Typical return +30.6%, usual range −19% to +81%, limited history.How often it rose: 72%
Typical return +28.0%, usual range −17% to +75%.How often it rose: 76%
Typical return +7.0%, usual range −23% to +67%, limited history.How often it rose: 59%
Know when the regime changes
VLO's typical 3-month return in past Mildly Off markets was +5.1%. Get an email the day the regime changes, and today's reading right away.
VLO: 1 month to 1 year, by market regime
| Regime | 1 month | 2 months | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | +1.8%55%53 | +4.4%60%38 | +6.4%59%27 | +6.2%62%18 | +30.2%75%10, limited history |
| Mildly On | +2.0%59%90 | +4.1%61%53 | +2.7%53%41 | +6.6%63%24 | +30.6%72%14, limited history |
| Neutral | +1.8%56%138 | +1.7%55%81 | +4.2%60%57 | +14.9%70%33 | +28.0%76%17 |
| Mildly Off Today | +1.7%56%83 | +3.0%59%52 | +5.1%64%39 | +8.5%59%23 | +7.0%59%13, limited history |
| Risk-Off | +8.1%72%26 | +11.1%78%18 | +12.5%73%14, limited history | +14.2%79%11, limited history | too little history: 8 past 12-month periods |
| All regimesbaseline | +2.1%58%213 | +3.6%59%107 | +5.0%60%73 | +10.9%66%36 | +22.6%71%18 |
Figures in italics have limited history (10 to 14 past periods); a dash means too little history.
VLO: Energy stocks
| Stock | Risk-On | Mildly On | Neutral | Today Mildly Off | Risk-Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector ETF (XLE) Energy | +3.4% | +2.8% | +0.9% | +0.6% | +6.3%, limited history |
| MPC Marathon Petroleum | +8.7% | +5.8% | +6.2% | +7.2% | +10.5%, limited history |
| TPL Texas Pacific Land | +19.1% | +8.1% | +3.0% | +5.5% | +13.8%, limited history |
| VLO Valero Energy | +6.4% | +2.7% | +4.2% | +5.1% | +12.5%, limited history |
| PSX Phillips 66 | +6.2% | +4.4% | +3.0% | +4.8% | +14.6%, limited history |
| OKE Oneok | +9.7% | +7.1% | +4.7% | +3.3% | +7.6%, limited history |
| TRGP Targa Resources | +13.9% | +13.2% | +6.5% | +3.3% | +10.9%, limited history |
| KMI Kinder Morgan | +3.2% | +2.3% | +0.6% | +2.5% | +6.3%, limited history |
| XOM Exxon Mobil | +1.0% | +1.2% | −0.2% | +2.2% | +9.3%, limited history |
| EOG EOG Resources | +4.6% | +4.7% | +1.2% | +1.1% | +6.3%, limited history |
| WMB Williams Companies | +8.3% | +6.2% | +4.1% | +1.1% | +5.5%, limited history |
| CVX Chevron | +3.1% | +1.8% | +0.7% | +0.9% | +8.5%, limited history |
| COP ConocoPhillips | +3.5% | +3.5% | +2.3% | +0.4% | +8.3%, limited history |
| BKR Baker Hughes | +3.9% | +3.2% | +2.5% | −0.2% | +3.2%, limited history |
| FANG Diamondback Energy | +3.9% | +10.3% | +4.7% | −0.2% | +11.0%, limited history |
| EQT EQT | +0.9% | +1.6% | +1.6% | −0.3% | +7.1%, limited history |
| APA APA | +1.2% | +0.7% | −2.1% | −0.7% | +9.4%, limited history |
| OXY Occidental Petroleum | +0.8% | +2.6% | −0.9% | −0.8% | +7.4%, limited history |
| SLB SLB | +0.5% | +1.5% | 0.0% | −1.0% | +3.6%, limited history |
| HAL Halliburton | +5.9% | +6.0% | +3.4% | −1.5% | +2.6%, limited history |
| DVN Devon Energy | +4.6% | +2.5% | −0.1% | −3.8% | +5.4%, limited history |
| UUUU Energy Fuels | +2.0% | −8.1% | −0.9% | −4.3% | +2.9%, limited history |
| EXE Expand Energy | too little history: 6 past 3-month periods | +5.4%, limited history | +5.1% | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods | too little history: 4 past 3-month periods |
Sector ETF: XLE's own typical return, the figure on its page.
VLO versus the market
VLO's typical 3-month return moves 2.3 times as much as the S&P 500's from one regime to another (VLO +2.7% to +12.5%, S&P 500 +1.7% to +6.0%).
Today's reading: 17th percentile (0 most Risk-Off, 100 most Risk-On), as of Friday's close, Oct 16.
Unlike the market, VLO's weakest regime has been Mildly On, not Mildly Off. VLO has historically shared the market's bounce from Risk-Off.
How to read this
Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what VLO did after past days in each market regime. They are not forecasts: any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from the last two decades may not hold in the years ahead.
The numbers. The typical return is the median: the middle outcome, with half of past periods better and half worse. The usual range holds 8 in 10 of them, from the 10th to the 90th percentile. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, shown as a dash. VLO history from January 3, 2006, data through October 16, 2026.
About the same. The sentence under the title sets VLO's typical return in today's regime against its typical return across all markets; figures within half a point, or within a tenth of the larger one, count as about the same. The section on VLO versus the market sets how far its typical return moves across regimes against the S&P 500's move, which says nothing about better or worse overall.
Single stocks. For one stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; its own trend dominates. Use it as context, not a reason to act. Why the mild-stress Dead Zone has been the weakest place to be.