Eversource Energy (ES) returns by market regime
In past Mildly Off markets, ES's typical 3-month return was +2.0%, rising 60% of the time, below its +3.1% across all markets.
ES: typical return and usual range
Tick: typical return · Bar ends: usual range · Dashed line: 0% · Arrow: runs past the edge
Typical return +1.3%, usual range −6% to +8%.How often it rose: 59%
Typical return +1.7%, usual range −5% to +8%.How often it rose: 61%
Typical return +0.8%, usual range −6% to +7%.How often it rose: 56%
Typical return +1.4%, usual range −5% to +8%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +3.9%, usual range −10% to +11%.How often it rose: 70%
Typical return +2.9%, usual range −7% to +11%.How often it rose: 68%
Typical return +2.1%, usual range −7% to +11%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +2.1%, usual range −8% to +10%.How often it rose: 62%
Typical return +2.0%, usual range −7% to +10%.How often it rose: 64%
Typical return +4.4%, usual range −9% to +13%.How often it rose: 69%
Typical return +3.6%, usual range −7% to +13%.How often it rose: 69%
Typical return +2.8%, usual range −7% to +12%.How often it rose: 65%
Typical return +3.2%, usual range −8% to +11%.How often it rose: 66%
Typical return +2.0%, usual range −8% to +11%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +5.5%, usual range −9% to +15%, limited history.How often it rose: 75%
Typical return +6.8%, usual range −4% to +17%.How often it rose: 75%
Typical return +7.5%, usual range −5% to +19%.How often it rose: 72%
Typical return +6.4%, usual range −9% to +19%.How often it rose: 65%
Typical return +5.5%, usual range −10% to +15%.How often it rose: 68%
Typical return +8.9%, usual range −12% to +21%, limited history.How often it rose: 74%
Typical return +10.1%, usual range −1% to +30%, limited history.How often it rose: 88%
Typical return +11.4%, usual range −3% to +30%, limited history.How often it rose: 85%
Typical return +11.0%, usual range −6% to +31%.How often it rose: 83%
Typical return +13.3%, usual range −13% to +32%, limited history.How often it rose: 79%
Know when the regime changes
ES's typical 3-month return in past Mildly Off markets was +2.0%. Get an email the day the regime changes, and today's reading right away.
ES: 1 month to 1 year, by market regime
| Regime | 1 month | 2 months | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | +1.3%59%53 | +2.9%68%38 | +3.6%69%27 | +6.8%75%18 | +10.1%88%10, limited history |
| Mildly On | +1.7%61%90 | +2.1%60%53 | +2.8%65%41 | +7.5%72%24 | +11.4%85%14, limited history |
| Neutral | +0.8%56%138 | +2.1%62%81 | +3.2%66%57 | +6.4%65%33 | +11.0%83%17 |
| Mildly Off Today | +1.4%60%83 | +2.0%64%52 | +2.0%60%39 | +5.5%68%23 | +13.3%79%13, limited history |
| Risk-Off | +3.9%70%26 | +4.4%69%18 | +5.5%75%14, limited history | +8.9%74%11, limited history | too little history: 8 past 12-month periods |
| All regimesbaseline | +1.3%59%213 | +2.3%63%107 | +3.1%66%73 | +6.6%69%36 | +11.5%82%18 |
Figures in italics have limited history (10 to 14 past periods); a dash means too little history.
ES: Utilities stocks
| Stock | Risk-On | Mildly On | Neutral | Today Mildly Off | Risk-Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector ETF (XLU) Utilities | +5.3% | +2.5% | +2.4% | +2.2% | +4.6%, limited history |
| VST Vistra | −2.6% | +1.7% | +8.4% | +5.9% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| AWK American Water Works | +3.7% | +3.7% | +3.7% | +4.6% | +7.5%, limited history |
| ATO Atmos Energy | +4.2% | +2.2% | +3.8% | +4.1% | +4.2%, limited history |
| NI NiSource | +6.4% | +4.8% | +4.8% | +3.8% | +5.1%, limited history |
| CMS CMS Energy | +4.5% | +2.8% | +4.0% | +3.6% | +5.0%, limited history |
| XEL Xcel Energy | +4.6% | +2.3% | +3.1% | +3.4% | +5.3%, limited history |
| AEP American Electric Power | +6.1% | +4.4% | +3.4% | +3.3% | +4.0%, limited history |
| AEE Ameren | +6.5% | +2.8% | +3.0% | +3.2% | +4.9%, limited history |
| SO Southern Company | +3.8% | +2.6% | +2.9% | +3.2% | +6.2%, limited history |
| WEC WEC Energy Group | +4.6% | +3.2% | +3.1% | +3.2% | +4.6%, limited history |
| AES AES | +3.7% | −1.7% | −0.8% | +3.1% | +10.2%, limited history |
| EVRG Evergy | +4.3% | +3.5% | +3.4% | +3.1% | +6.3%, limited history |
| NEE NextEra Energy | +7.5% | +5.3% | +4.3% | +2.9% | +6.7%, limited history |
| PNW Pinnacle West Capital | +4.8% | +3.2% | +2.3% | +2.9% | +4.4%, limited history |
| DTE DTE Energy | +6.9% | +4.5% | +3.1% | +2.3% | +4.1%, limited history |
| ETR Entergy | +6.2% | +2.7% | +1.8% | +2.3% | +6.3%, limited history |
| PEG Public Service Enterprise Group | +5.1% | +1.8% | +1.2% | +2.2% | +2.1%, limited history |
| DUK Duke Energy | +5.7% | +3.1% | +2.4% | +2.1% | +2.1%, limited history |
| LNT Alliant Energy | +6.2% | +4.0% | +3.9% | +2.1% | +5.1%, limited history |
| NRG NRG Energy | +0.4% | +2.9% | +2.9% | +2.1% | +2.1%, limited history |
| ES Eversource Energy | +3.6% | +2.8% | +3.2% | +2.0% | +5.5%, limited history |
| SRE Sempra | +5.5% | +3.4% | +3.1% | +2.0% | +5.8%, limited history |
| ED Con Edison | +4.3% | +2.3% | +2.7% | +1.8% | +2.3%, limited history |
| EIX Edison International | +4.5% | +2.9% | +2.2% | +1.8% | +5.4%, limited history |
| PPL PPL | +4.9% | −0.1% | +1.0% | +1.8% | +5.6%, limited history |
| FE FirstEnergy | +3.1% | +1.9% | +1.1% | +1.7% | +1.6%, limited history |
| D Dominion Energy | +4.7% | +3.2% | +2.9% | +1.4% | +2.0%, limited history |
| EXC Exelon | +4.1% | +1.3% | +0.5% | +1.2% | −0.5%, limited history |
| CNP CenterPoint Energy | +6.7% | +3.3% | +2.9% | +1.1% | +2.2%, limited history |
| PCG PG&E | +2.2% | +2.6% | +1.5% | +1.0% | +1.1%, limited history |
| CEG Constellation Energy | too little history: 5 past 3-month periods | +8.9%, limited history | +8.5%, limited history | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods | too little history: 4 past 3-month periods |
Sector ETF: XLU's own typical return, the figure on its page.
ES versus the market
ES's typical 3-month return moves 0.8 times as much as the S&P 500's from one regime to another (ES +2.0% to +5.5%, S&P 500 +1.7% to +6.0%).
Today's reading: 17th percentile (0 most Risk-Off, 100 most Risk-On), as of Friday's close, Oct 16.
ES shares the market's weakest regime, Mildly Off. That is today's regime. ES has historically shared the market's bounce from Risk-Off.
How to read this
Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what ES did after past days in each market regime. They are not forecasts: any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from the last two decades may not hold in the years ahead.
The numbers. The typical return is the median: the middle outcome, with half of past periods better and half worse. The usual range holds 8 in 10 of them, from the 10th to the 90th percentile. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, shown as a dash. ES history from January 3, 2006, data through October 16, 2026.
About the same. The sentence under the title sets ES's typical return in today's regime against its typical return across all markets; figures within half a point, or within a tenth of the larger one, count as about the same. The section on ES versus the market sets how far its typical return moves across regimes against the S&P 500's move, which says nothing about better or worse overall.
Single stocks. For one stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; its own trend dominates. Use it as context, not a reason to act. Why the mild-stress Dead Zone has been the weakest place to be.