A. O. Smith (AOS) returns by market regime
In past Mildly Off markets, AOS's typical 3-month return was +2.3%, rising 54% of the time, below its +5.3% across all markets.
AOS: typical return and usual range
Tick: typical return · Bar ends: usual range · Dashed line: 0% · Arrow: runs past the edge
Typical return +1.0%, usual range −8% to +11%.How often it rose: 55%
Typical return +1.4%, usual range −7% to +11%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +2.0%, usual range −7% to +10%.How often it rose: 62%
Typical return +0.7%, usual range −9% to +9%.How often it rose: 53%
Typical return +5.7%, usual range −10% to +15%.How often it rose: 70%
Typical return +4.7%, usual range −7% to +16%.How often it rose: 73%
Typical return +1.5%, usual range −11% to +14%.How often it rose: 59%
Typical return +3.8%, usual range −10% to +15%.How often it rose: 64%
Typical return +1.5%, usual range −14% to +15%.How often it rose: 56%
Typical return +6.6%, usual range −9% to +22%.How often it rose: 72%
Typical return +5.9%, usual range −8% to +22%.How often it rose: 66%
Typical return +4.4%, usual range −12% to +18%.How often it rose: 63%
Typical return +5.8%, usual range −12% to +19%.How often it rose: 69%
Typical return +2.3%, usual range −16% to +19%.How often it rose: 54%
Typical return +12.5%, usual range −11% to +25%, limited history.How often it rose: 80%
Typical return +13.2%, usual range −13% to +40%.How often it rose: 79%
Typical return +10.0%, usual range −11% to +30%.How often it rose: 73%
Typical return +10.8%, usual range −16% to +31%.How often it rose: 71%
Typical return +6.1%, usual range −20% to +31%.How often it rose: 62%
Typical return +14.6%, usual range −11% to +39%, limited history.How often it rose: 78%
Typical return +29.4%, usual range −14% to +70%, limited history.How often it rose: 81%
Typical return +21.1%, usual range −18% to +56%, limited history.How often it rose: 71%
Typical return +16.7%, usual range −20% to +57%.How often it rose: 70%
Typical return +19.9%, usual range −19% to +58%, limited history.How often it rose: 76%
Know when the regime changes
AOS's typical 3-month return in past Mildly Off markets was +2.3%. Get an email the day the regime changes, and today's reading right away.
AOS: 1 month to 1 year, by market regime
| Regime | 1 month | 2 months | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | +1.0%55%53 | +4.7%73%38 | +5.9%66%27 | +13.2%79%18 | +29.4%81%10, limited history |
| Mildly On | +1.4%60%90 | +1.5%59%53 | +4.4%63%41 | +10.0%73%24 | +21.1%71%14, limited history |
| Neutral | +2.0%62%138 | +3.8%64%81 | +5.8%69%57 | +10.8%71%33 | +16.7%70%17 |
| Mildly Off Today | +0.7%53%83 | +1.5%56%52 | +2.3%54%39 | +6.1%62%23 | +19.9%76%13, limited history |
| Risk-Off | +5.7%70%26 | +6.6%72%18 | +12.5%80%14, limited history | +14.6%78%11, limited history | too little history: 8 past 12-month periods |
| All regimesbaseline | +1.7%60%213 | +3.2%63%107 | +5.3%65%73 | +9.9%71%36 | +20.8%75%18 |
Figures in italics have limited history (10 to 14 past periods); a dash means too little history.
AOS: Industrials stocks
| Stock | Risk-On | Mildly On | Neutral | Today Mildly Off | Risk-Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector ETF (XLI) Industrials | +6.0% | +4.8% | +3.6% | +1.5% | +7.2%, limited history |
| FIX Comfort Systems USA | +5.0% | +6.2% | +7.5% | +8.7% | +16.8%, limited history |
| TDG TransDigm | +3.2% | +7.5% | +8.0% | +8.0% | +8.9%, limited history |
| CTAS Cintas | +5.8% | +6.5% | +6.7% | +6.0% | +7.7%, limited history |
| AXON Axon Enterprise | −2.6% | +5.0% | +9.3% | +5.9% | +20.0%, limited history |
| ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line | +8.6% | +7.4% | +7.5% | +5.2% | +11.4%, limited history |
| BR Broadridge | +3.5% | +4.5% | +5.8% | +5.1% | +8.4%, limited history |
| GWW W. W. Grainger | +5.7% | +3.8% | +4.2% | +4.9% | +8.0%, limited history |
| WAB Wabtec | +5.2% | +7.3% | +6.6% | +4.6% | +9.4%, limited history |
| TT Trane Technologies | +9.5% | +8.6% | +6.3% | +4.2% | +8.7%, limited history |
| LII Lennox International | +7.6% | +5.4% | +7.1% | +4.0% | +10.9%, limited history |
| ADP Automatic Data Processing | +5.0% | +4.0% | +3.8% | +3.8% | +7.6%, limited history |
| ETN Eaton | +7.1% | +6.1% | +6.0% | +3.7% | +9.2%, limited history |
| NOC Northrop Grumman | +6.2% | +4.4% | +4.9% | +3.7% | +7.6%, limited history |
| CARR Carrier | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods | +7.6% | +3.6% | +3.5%, limited history | too little history: 5 past 3-month periods |
| CPRT Copart | +2.8% | +3.3% | +6.0% | +3.5% | +10.8%, limited history |
| ROL Rollins | +1.9% | +4.2% | +4.3% | +3.5% | +7.3%, limited history |
| DE Deere | +9.4% | +3.4% | +4.1% | +3.4% | +6.5%, limited history |
| LMT Lockheed Martin | +6.9% | +3.7% | +1.8% | +3.3% | +6.4%, limited history |
| RSG Republic Services | +6.4% | +4.5% | +4.2% | +3.2% | +4.0%, limited history |
| SNA Snap-on | +6.1% | +4.1% | +4.9% | +3.2% | +7.6%, limited history |
| VRSK Verisk Analytics | +0.3% | +1.7% | +4.1% | +3.2% | +9.9%, limited history |
| EFX Equifax | +1.1% | +2.9% | +5.2% | +3.1% | +14.0%, limited history |
| IEX IDEX | +5.8% | +5.6% | +5.2% | +3.1% | +8.9%, limited history |
| ITW Illinois Tool Works | +6.0% | +3.2% | +4.1% | +3.1% | +8.6%, limited history |
| PCAR PACCAR | +3.8% | +3.0% | +4.2% | +3.1% | +8.5%, limited history |
| LHX L3Harris | +5.7% | +5.0% | +4.3% | +2.8% | +3.1%, limited history |
| MAS Masco | +5.0% | +2.1% | +4.6% | +2.8% | +10.1%, limited history |
| ALK Alaska Air | +7.3% | +6.7% | +3.5% | +2.6% | +7.1%, limited history |
| PWR Quanta Services | +10.8% | +6.2% | +4.7% | +2.6% | +11.1%, limited history |
| UNP Union Pacific | +6.7% | +4.8% | +5.0% | +2.6% | +5.1%, limited history |
| WM Waste Management | +4.8% | +4.7% | +4.9% | +2.5% | +5.9%, limited history |
| HUBB Hubbell | +6.9% | +5.3% | +4.3% | +2.4% | +12.7%, limited history |
| AOS A. O. Smith | +5.9% | +4.4% | +5.8% | +2.3% | +12.5%, limited history |
| CAT Caterpillar | +13.3% | +8.9% | +3.8% | +2.3% | +6.7%, limited history |
| UAL United Airlines | +8.5% | +9.2% | +3.9% | +2.3% | +1.7%, limited history |
| XYL Xylem | +2.6% | +3.9% | +3.4% | +2.3% | +13.2%, limited history |
| CMI Cummins | +9.1% | +7.2% | +4.2% | +2.2% | +8.5%, limited history |
| GNRC Generac | +10.1% | +5.5% | +7.7% | +2.2% | +7.9%, limited history |
| ROK Rockwell Automation | +5.0% | +5.5% | +6.0% | +2.2% | +15.4%, limited history |
| AME Ametek | +5.3% | +5.3% | +5.0% | +2.1% | +6.8%, limited history |
| HON Honeywell | +6.6% | +3.7% | +4.0% | +2.0% | +9.0%, limited history |
| PH Parker-Hannifin | +10.6% | +7.3% | +4.4% | +2.0% | +11.1%, limited history |
| RTX RTX | +7.6% | +6.8% | +3.8% | +2.0% | +4.5%, limited history |
| ALLE Allegion | +6.1% | +2.3% | +2.7% | +1.9% | +9.5%, limited history |
| HWM Howmet Aerospace | +16.5%, limited history | +12.3% | +8.7% | +1.9% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| NDSN Nordson | +7.4% | +4.5% | +4.5% | +1.9% | +9.3%, limited history |
| DAL Delta Air Lines | +7.4% | +9.7% | +5.0% | +1.7% | +4.4%, limited history |
| FERG Ferguson Enterprises | +5.8% | +5.1% | +5.2% | +1.7% | +8.1%, limited history |
| FAST Fastenal | +2.8% | +4.5% | +5.0% | +1.6% | +7.4%, limited history |
| GE GE Aerospace | +6.9% | +2.8% | +2.0% | +1.6% | +7.7%, limited history |
| JCI Johnson Controls | +8.1% | +6.9% | +4.8% | +1.6% | +8.2%, limited history |
| BA Boeing | +6.8% | +1.2% | +2.8% | +1.5% | +10.3%, limited history |
| UPS UPS | +0.8% | +1.4% | +1.6% | +1.5% | +7.5%, limited history |
| DOV Dover | +6.4% | +7.0% | +5.4% | +1.4% | +6.8%, limited history |
| PAYX Paychex | +5.8% | +3.1% | +3.8% | +1.4% | +6.8%, limited history |
| VRT Vertiv | +12.5%, limited history | +22.6% | +10.1% | +1.4% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| EME Emcor | +8.2% | +4.7% | +4.1% | +1.3% | +10.6%, limited history |
| EMR Emerson Electric | +6.0% | +5.6% | +2.5% | +1.3% | +6.8%, limited history |
| EXPD Expeditors International | +4.2% | +1.8% | +2.7% | +1.2% | +5.0%, limited history |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt | +8.2% | +3.7% | +3.6% | +1.2% | +9.2%, limited history |
| LDOS Leidos | +2.5% | +5.8% | +1.8% | +1.2% | +5.8%, limited history |
| GD General Dynamics | +7.0% | +5.7% | +5.0% | +1.1% | +4.0%, limited history |
| TXT Textron | +4.0% | +5.2% | +2.0% | +1.0% | +6.2%, limited history |
| URI United Rentals | +15.5% | +7.3% | +9.9% | +0.5% | +16.6%, limited history |
| FTV Fortive | +3.8% | +5.0% | +2.9% | +0.3% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| HII Huntington Ingalls | +9.8% | +7.4% | +5.5% | +0.2% | +11.4%, limited history |
| J Jacobs Solutions | +6.9% | +3.3% | +1.3% | +0.2% | +12.4%, limited history |
| CSX CSX | +8.4% | +5.1% | +4.2% | 0.0% | +3.9%, limited history |
| SWK Stanley Black & Decker | +8.1% | +2.8% | +3.3% | −0.1% | +8.6%, limited history |
| LUV Southwest Airlines | +10.6% | +7.5% | +0.9% | −0.3% | +4.8%, limited history |
| NSC Norfolk Southern | +9.0% | +6.4% | +4.5% | −0.5% | +10.7%, limited history |
| DD DuPont | +8.2% | +5.5% | +1.9% | −0.9% | +4.9%, limited history |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson | +5.0% | +0.9% | +1.0% | −1.0% | +3.4%, limited history |
| MMM 3M | +7.5% | +4.2% | +2.7% | −1.0% | +5.0%, limited history |
| PNR Pentair | +5.5% | +5.4% | +4.9% | −1.2% | +3.6%, limited history |
| FDX FedEx | +7.6% | +7.0% | +2.4% | −1.4% | +5.0%, limited history |
| AAL American Airlines | +0.7% | +5.9% | +5.3% | −2.4% | +0.7%, limited history |
| IR Ingersoll Rand | +6.9%, limited history | +5.3% | +4.1% | −2.5% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
| OTIS Otis | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods | +2.3% | +0.9% | −3.1%, limited history | too little history: 5 past 3-month periods |
| UBER Uber | +2.1%, limited history | +0.4% | +4.2% | −5.9%, limited history | too little history: 7 past 3-month periods |
| PLUG Plug Power | −4.7% | −8.6% | −7.3% | −9.9% | +13.8%, limited history |
| BE Bloom Energy | +1.2%, limited history | +9.2% | +2.3% | −13.0% | too little history: 8 past 3-month periods |
Sector ETF: XLI's own typical return, the figure on its page.
AOS versus the market
AOS's typical 3-month return moves 2.4 times as much as the S&P 500's from one regime to another (AOS +2.3% to +12.5%, S&P 500 +1.7% to +6.0%).
Today's reading: 17th percentile (0 most Risk-Off, 100 most Risk-On), as of Friday's close, Oct 16.
AOS shares the market's weakest regime, Mildly Off. That is today's regime. AOS has historically shared the market's bounce from Risk-Off.
How to read this
Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what AOS did after past days in each market regime. They are not forecasts: any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from the last two decades may not hold in the years ahead.
The numbers. The typical return is the median: the middle outcome, with half of past periods better and half worse. The usual range holds 8 in 10 of them, from the 10th to the 90th percentile. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, shown as a dash. AOS history from January 3, 2006, data through October 16, 2026.
About the same. The sentence under the title sets AOS's typical return in today's regime against its typical return across all markets; figures within half a point, or within a tenth of the larger one, count as about the same. The section on AOS versus the market sets how far its typical return moves across regimes against the S&P 500's move, which says nothing about better or worse overall.
Single stocks. For one stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; its own trend dominates. Use it as context, not a reason to act. Why the mild-stress Dead Zone has been the weakest place to be.