Regime Card← Returns by RegimeAbbVie (ABBV) returns by market regime
How ABBV has historically performed from each regime band. Base rates, not forecasts.
The market is NEUTRAL today (39.4 percentile, as of September 4, 2026). From here, ABBV has historically returned a median +4.7% over 3 months, positive 64% of the time, across 42 independent windows.
A median +0.9% over 3 months, positive 53% of the time: that is ABBV in Mildly-Off, its weakest band and the market's too, against +4.7% across all regimes. ABBV has not shared the market's Risk-Off bounce: a median +2.3% from Risk-Off, below its +4.7% all-regime average (12 windows, thin). Regime has been a moderate input for ABBV: 6.4 points separate Mildly-Off from Mildly-On, against 4.2 for SPY, with the stock's own trend doing most of the work.
3-month forward return by regime
Each band shows where 80% of ABBV's outcomes landed, low to high, with a tick at the typical return. Red where returns were negative, green where positive, deeper with size; the line marks zero. Bands with under 10 independent windows are hidden. Historical base rates, not a forecast.
All horizons
| Regime | 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RISK-ON | +1.7%60% positive43 windows | +3.1%69% positive31 windows | +5.4%71% positive21 windows | +13.3%93% positive14 windows · thin | insufficient (8) |
| MILDLY ON | +3.3%72% positive68 windows | +6.2%74% positive41 windows | +7.3%74% positive31 windows | +11.7%90% positive18 windows | +27.9%98% positive10 windows · thin |
| NEUTRAL ● here | +1.5%61% positive103 windows | +3.2%63% positive60 windows | +4.7%64% positive42 windows | +10.3%75% positive25 windows | +23.6%86% positive13 windows · thin |
| MILDLY OFF | +1.7%58% positive63 windows | +1.9%56% positive39 windows | +0.9%53% positive29 windows | +2.7%59% positive17 windows | insufficient (9) |
| RISK-OFF | −0.1%49% positive21 windows | +1.1%54% positive15 windows | +2.3%53% positive12 windows · thin | insufficient (9) | insufficient (6) |
| All regimes | +1.9%61% positive159 windows | +3.3%64% positive80 windows | +4.7%64% positive54 windows | +10.0%76% positive27 windows | +21.1%83% positive13 windows · thin |
Median forward return, share of positive outcomes, and the count of independent (non-overlapping) windows. Fewer than 10 reads as insufficient; 10 to 14 is marked thin. ABBV history from January 2, 2013, data through September 4, 2026. Historical base rates, not a forecast.
How to read this
Every trading day the market regime sits in one of five bands, from Risk-Off to Risk-On. This page asks one question about ABBV: historically, when the market was in each band, what did ABBV do next? These are descriptions of what has happened, not predictions of what will. A median is a typical past outcome, and any single instance can land far from it.
For an individual stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; the stock's own trend dominates. Treat this as context among many inputs, not a reason to act. Method and market-level base rates are on Returns by Regime; the bigger picture is in the Dead Zone.
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All 50 stocks · Check any other ticker on Returns by Regime.