Arm Holdings (ARM) returns by market regime
In past Mildly Off markets, ARM has too little history (3 past 3-month periods) to quote a figure.
Shorter history: ARM's prices start in 2023, so the longer time frames need more past periods to fill in.
ARM: typical return and usual range
Tick: typical return · Bar ends: usual range · Dashed line: 0% · Arrow: runs past the edge
Typical return −4.7%, usual range −30% to +60%, limited history.How often it rose: 42%
Typical return +5.2%, usual range −17% to +41%.How often it rose: 64%
Typical return +4.9%, usual range −18% to +28%.How often it rose: 59%
Typical return +8.9%, usual range −27% to +76%, limited history.How often it rose: 55%
Typical return +12.1%, usual range −22% to +70%, limited history.How often it rose: 64%
Typical return +0.1%, usual range −24% to +88%, limited history.How often it rose: 50%
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ARM: 1 month to 1 year, by market regime
| Regime | 1 month | 2 months | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | −4.7%42%14, limited history | too little history: 9 past 2-month periods | too little history: 5 past 3-month periods | too little history: 3 past 6-month periods | too little history: 2 past 12-month periods |
| Mildly On | +5.2%64%25 | +8.9%55%14, limited history | +0.1%50%10, limited history | too little history: 5 past 6-month periods | too little history: 2 past 12-month periods |
| Neutral | +4.9%59%24 | +12.1%64%13, limited history | too little history: 9 past 3-month periods | too little history: 5 past 6-month periods | too little history: 3 past 12-month periods |
| Mildly Off Today | too little history: 6 past 1-month periods | too little history: 3 past 2-month periods | too little history: 3 past 3-month periods | too little history: 3 past 6-month periods | too little history: 1 past 12-month period |
| Risk-Off | too little history: 1 past 1-month period | too little history: 1 past 2-month period | too little history: 1 past 3-month period | too little history: 1 past 6-month period | too little history: 1 past 12-month period |
| All regimesbaseline | +4.0%58%35 | +9.8%60%18 | +8.8%62%12, limited history | too little history: 6 past 6-month periods | too little history: 3 past 12-month periods |
Figures in italics have limited history (10 to 14 past periods); a dash means too little history.
ARM versus the market
ARM has too little history to compare its regimes.
Today's reading: 17th percentile (0 most Risk-Off, 100 most Risk-On), as of Friday's close, Oct 16.
ARM has too little history across regimes to compare with the market; the chart and table above show what the data can support.
How to read this
Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what ARM did after past days in each market regime. They are not forecasts: any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from the last two decades may not hold in the years ahead.
The numbers. The typical return is the median: the middle outcome, with half of past periods better and half worse. The usual range holds 8 in 10 of them, from the 10th to the 90th percentile. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, shown as a dash. ARM history from September 14, 2023, data through October 16, 2026.
About the same. The sentence under the title sets ARM's typical return in today's regime against its typical return across all markets; figures within half a point, or within a tenth of the larger one, count as about the same. The section on ARM versus the market sets how far its typical return moves across regimes against the S&P 500's move, which says nothing about better or worse overall.
Single stocks. For one stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; its own trend dominates. Use it as context, not a reason to act. Why the mild-stress Dead Zone has been the weakest place to be.