Returns by Regime

How to read this

What the chart shows. Each bar spans the usual range of the S&P 500's returns over the months after past days in that regime, from the 10th to the 90th percentile; the white tick is the typical return, the median, and the line marks 0%. Red where outcomes were below zero, green above.

Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what has happened, not what will. Any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from the last two decades may not hold in the next.

Limited and too little history. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means a figure rests on 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, and no figure is shown.

Single stocks. For one stock the regime is usually a small nudge, not the main driver; the stock's own trend dominates. Use it as context among many inputs, not a reason to act.

Why the mild-stress Dead Zone has been the weakest place to be. For the S&P 500's move over the 5 and 20 trading days after each reading, see the scorecard.