Regime CardBitcoin (BTC) returns by market regime
In past Mildly Off markets, BTC's typical 3-month return was −6.6%, rising 36% of the time, below its +8.3% across all markets.
Typical return and usual range
Tick: typical return · Bar ends: usual range · Dashed line: 0% · Arrow: runs past the edge
Typical return +5.5%, usual range −12% to +47%.How often it rose: 62%
Typical return +5.2%, usual range −13% to +42%.How often it rose: 64%
Typical return +3.7%, usual range −18% to +33%.How often it rose: 59%
Typical return −3.0%, usual range −23% to +26%.How often it rose: 42%
Typical return +3.8%, usual range −21% to +31%.How often it rose: 60%
Typical return +11.4%, usual range −21% to +72%.How often it rose: 64%
Typical return +13.3%, usual range −22% to +78%.How often it rose: 64%
Typical return +11.8%, usual range −26% to +54%.How often it rose: 66%
Typical return −6.9%, usual range −31% to +33%.How often it rose: 36%
Typical return +1.8%, usual range −27% to +43%.How often it rose: 56%
Typical return +19.9%, usual range −21% to +124%.How often it rose: 66%
Typical return +21.6%, usual range −25% to +141%.How often it rose: 65%
Typical return +16.9%, usual range −29% to +95%.How often it rose: 67%
Typical return −6.6%, usual range −39% to +41%.How often it rose: 36%
Typical return +5.0%, usual range −28% to +56%, limited history.How often it rose: 55%
Typical return +55.4%, usual range −26% to +302%, limited history.How often it rose: 71%
Typical return +40.0%, usual range −30% to +312%, limited history.How often it rose: 73%
Typical return +29.8%, usual range −38% to +165%.How often it rose: 70%
Typical return −4.0%, usual range −45% to +71%.How often it rose: 47%
Typical return +76.2%, usual range −56% to +323%, limited history.How often it rose: 66%
1 month to 1 year, by market regime
| Regime | 1 month | 2 months | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | +5.5%62%36 | +11.4%64%26 | +19.9%66%17 | +55.4%71%11, limited history | too little history: 7 past 12-month periods |
| Mildly On | +5.2%64%55 | +13.3%64%32 | +21.6%65%24 | +40.0%73%14, limited history | too little history: 8 past 12-month periods |
| Neutral | +3.7%59%89 | +11.8%66%52 | +16.9%67%36 | +29.8%70%22 | +76.2%66%11, limited history |
| Mildly Off Today | −3.0%42%59 | −6.9%36%36 | −6.6%36%27 | −4.0%47%17 | too little history: 8 past 12-month periods |
| Risk-Off | +3.8%60%21 | +1.8%56%15 | +5.0%55%12, limited history | too little history: 9 past 6-month periods | too little history: 6 past 12-month periods |
| All regimesbaseline | +2.9%57%140 | +6.4%58%70 | +8.3%58%48 | +28.0%64%24 | +72.2%72%12, limited history |
Figures in italics have limited history (10 to 14 past periods); a dash means too little history.
Versus the market
BTC's typical 3-month return moves 6.7 times as much as the S&P 500's from one regime to another (BTC −6.6% to +21.6%, S&P 500 +1.7% to +6.0%).
Today's reading: 24th percentile (0 most Risk-Off, 100 most Risk-On), as of Sep 25, 2026.
Mildly Off has been BTC's weakest regime, as it has been for the market. That is today's regime. BTC has not shared the market's bounce from Risk-Off: its typical return there sat below its typical return across all markets.
How to read this
Base rates, not forecasts. These describe what BTC did after past days in each market regime. They are not forecasts: any single period can land far from the typical return, and a pattern from BTC's history since 2014 may not hold in the years ahead.
The numbers. The typical return is the median: the middle outcome, with half of past periods better and half worse. The usual range holds 8 in 10 of them, from the 10th to the 90th percentile. Past periods are counted only when they do not overlap. Limited history means 10 to 14 such periods, shown in italics; too little history means fewer than 10, shown as a dash. BTC history from September 17, 2014, data through September 26, 2026. Coins trade every day; the market regime is read on US market days, so every past period starts on one.
About the same. The sentence under the title sets BTC's typical return in today's regime against its typical return across all markets; figures within half a point, or within a tenth of the larger one, count as about the same. Versus the market sets how far its typical return moves across regimes against the S&P 500's move, which says nothing about better or worse overall.
Single coins. For one coin the US market regime is context, not the main driver; crypto has cycles of its own. Use it as context, not a reason to act. How the mild-stress Dead Zone has played out for US stocks.